[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands at 13N southward, and moving W slowly
at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 11N
between 28W and 32W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form around midweek. There is a high chance of
development for the next 2 to 5 days.

A broad mid-Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 16N southward,
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 15N between 47W and 51W. Some gradual
development is possible during the next few days and it should
reach the Windward Islands and eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek.
There is a medium chance of development for the next 2 to 5 days.

For the latest information on both tropical waves, please read
the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast near the
Senegal-Gambia border across 10N26W to 07N36W. In addition to
those near the tropical wave mentioned above, scattered moderate
convection is present up to 180 nm along either side of the
trough. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
flaring up near the Guinea Bissau-Guinea coast. An ITCZ continues
from 07N36W to 10N48W, then from 10N51W to near Trinidad and
Tobago. Moderate convection is present up to 120 nm along either
side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches eastward from the southwestern Gulf
across the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula into the Yucatan
Channel. Scattered showers are seen up to 70 nm along either side
of this feature. Otherwise, gentle to moderate N to NE winds with
2 to 4 ft seas exist across the southwestern, south-central and
northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, winds across the northeastern Gulf are expected
to become moderate to fresh later Mon morning. High pressure from
the central U.S. continues to build southward toward the northern
Gulf, causing a frontal trough currently over the southeastern
U.S. to move southward and reaching the eastern Gulf Mon night
through Tue night. Afterward, the high from behind will sustain
moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the northeastern Gulf. As the
high weakens, these winds should decrease to between gentle and
moderate Wed through Fri night. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
will develop over the southeastern Gulf starting Fri as a tight
gradient builds behind a cold front that will move southward over
southern Florida and the Keys.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough runs south-southwestward from central Cuba
through a 1010 mb low just east of the Honduras-Nicaragua border
to offshore of southern Nicaragua. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring from the Nicaragua coast northeastward
to eastern Cuba, including Jamaica and the Windward Passage.
Locally moderate to fresh winds and higher seas are possible near
heavier showers. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft
seas are present over the western basin. Gentle to moderate E to
SE trades and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough is forecast
to persist in the general area through at least Wed. A tropical
wave currently in the central Atlantic near 49W will reach the
Windward Islands and eastern basin by midweek, bringing showery
and gusty conditions along with locally higher seas. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are
expected across the basin over the next few days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low off the
Mid-Atlantic coast across 31N72W to 28N74W, then continues as a
stationary front across the northwest Bahamas to the Florida
Straits. Widely scattered showers are evident up to 60 nm along
either side of this boundary. Convergent southerly winds east of
this boundary are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 21N between
62W and the southwest Bahamas/73W. An upper-level trough runs
northward from east of the Leeward Islands at 15N55W to a low
near 23N54W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are found from 14N to 19N between 56W and the Leeward Islands.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the low from
20N to 25N between 52W and 56W. Two surface troughs are causing
widely scattered moderate convection at the central Atlantic north
of 21N between 27W and 41W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin.

The 1022 mb Bermuda High near 31N52W is supporting light to gentle
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft north of 20N between 30W and 60W. To
the west, Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas
are seen north of 20N between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast.
Near the Canary Islands, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft in northerly swell exist north of 20N between the NW African
coast and 30W. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE to E trades
and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident from 10N to 20N between central
African coast and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate
monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in southerly
swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift eastward
and become stationary from near 31N64W to 27N68W, over the
central Bahamas and Straits of Florida Fri and Fri night. While
the stationary front will gradually weaken and dissipate by Tue
night. A stronger cold front is expected to move off the
southeastern U.S. coast Mon and merge with the lingering
stationary front on Tue. Fresh northerly winds will follow the
second cold front through late Wed, reaching the central Bahamas
and Straits of Florida on Thu. These conditions are expected to
last into Fri night.

$$

Chan
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