[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 30W, from 03N to
16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted S of 11N
between 25W-33W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for some gradual development during the next several
days. Therefore, a tropical depression is likely to form during
the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
westward, then turns northwestward or northward toward the end of
the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This wave has a low
chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high
chance through the next 5 days. For the latest information,
please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 45W, from 02N to
17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 06N to 14N, between 42W-52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 08N37W. The ITCZ continues from 08N37W to 09N42W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from 09N48W to 06N55W. Scattered showers
are noted from 08N to 12N between 20W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Marine conditions are favorable in the Gulf of Mexico with a
gentle northerly breeze and slight seas across the basin. Dry air
is suppressing any significant convection.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from central Cuba to a 1010 mb surface
low near 15N82W to 10N83W. These features continue to drive the
weather in the W and central Caribbean, supporting scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms between 70W-83W. The gradient
between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over South
America is supporting moderate trade winds in the eastern
Caribbean and 2-4 ft seas. This gradient relaxes across the
remainder of the basin where winds are gentle and seas are in the
1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, the surface trough is forecast to persist over
the western Caribbean through at least Tue. A tropical wave,
currently located along 45W should reach 55W/56W by Tue bringing
some increase in winds and seas to the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas
are expected across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary boundary front extends east of Florida from 31N75W
to 24N78W. West of the boundary, winds are light to gentle with
4-6 ft swell and clear skies. East of the boundary, winds are
moderate to fresh from the S with 5-7 ft seas. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms extend east of the boundary to 70W. High
pressure dominates the central Atlantic where easterly winds are
light to gentle with 3-5 ft seas north of 20N, and moderate with
4-6 ft seas south of 20N. A tighter pressure gradient in the
eastern Atlantic is causing moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will be
reinforced by a cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida
today. The combined frontal boundary will continue moving east
across the western Atlantic through the week enhancing
winds/seas/convection.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net