[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of
16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 13N, between 16W and 29W. This wave has a low chance
of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance
over the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read the
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of
17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 07N to 14N, between 36W and 47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W to
09N39W and then from 09N41W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 14N and between 47W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds are basin-wide with seas
to 3 ft. Except for the Yucatan channel where low level
precipitable water imagery show shallow moisture, the remainder
basin is under the influence of deep layer dry air, which is
supporting fair weather.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to build across the
Gulf waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle
to locally moderate NE to E winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from central Cuba SW to a 1008 mb low
near 15N81W to the coastal waters of central Panama. This feature
continues to drive the weather in the SW and central Caribbean,
supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms in those regions.
This shower activity is being reinforced by middle and upper level
divergent and diffluent flow. In terms of winds and seas, a weak
pressure gradient in this region is providing mainly light to
gentle variable winds with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Over the E
Caribbean, the presence of the Bermuda High tighten the pressure
gradient slightly, thus supporting slightly higher winds of gentle
to moderate speeds with locally fresh trades in the far SE basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to persist over
the western Caribbean through at least Tue. A tropical wave,
currently located along 42W/43W should reach 55W/56W by Tue
bringing some increase in winds and seas. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across
the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 36.8N 78.8W at
01/2100 UTC or 80 nm WSW of Richmond Virginia moving ENE at 5
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas subsided
to just less than 8 ft in the SW N Atlantic waters just E of the
Bahamas to 60W. A stationary front extends from 31N75W SW to
Andros Island and central Cuba. To the east of the front to 60W,
moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail with seas between 5 to 7
ft. West of the frontal boundary and along the Florida seaboard
winds are gentle to locally moderate with seas in the 2-4 ft
range. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the
influence of the Azores and Bermuda Highs, which are supporting
light to gentle variable winds, except E of 26W where NE moderate
to fresh winds are present with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front should be
reinforced by another cold front moving off of the coast of NE
Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should reach from near
31N70W to the NW Bahamas by early Mon morning, and extend from
31N66W to the central Bahamas by early Tue morning.

$$
Ramos
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