[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A fast moving cold front entered
the NW Gulf this morning, and now stretches from Vermillion Bay,
LA to South Padre Island, TX. Strong to near gale force N-NE
winds are noted behind the front, however, a buoy observation
offshore Port OConnor, TX recently reported gale force winds. A
line of thunderstorms is about 30 to 60 nm ahead of the cold
front producing frequent lightning strikes. Frequent gusts to
gale force are expected in the NW Gulf through this afternoon,
more likely west of 94W. As a result, seas will build to 8-10 ft
in the NW Gulf this afternoon, then begin to subside late
tonight into Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue along and ahead of the front. Winds will
diminish on Thu as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts
eastward. Seas in the NW Gulf will subside to below 8 ft late on
Thu. For details on this Gale Warning, please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
09N13W to 07N18W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ extends to 05N30W to 03N40W
and to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 90
nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-35W, and from 02N to 05N
between 35W and 45W

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front producing gale force winds has entered the Gulf of
Mexico stretching from Vermillion Bay, LA to South Padre Island,
TX. Please see the special features section above for the latest
information on the Gale Warning in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

Elsewhere ahead of the front across the Gulf, the pressure
gradient remains fairly weak, resulting in mainly moderate to
fresh E to SE breezes. A surface trough axis is over the western
Bay of Campeche allowing for winds to turn northerly along and
within 60 nm of the eastern Mexico coast. Seas ahead of the
front are in the 1 to 3 ft range.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from central Florida
to northeastern Mexico by early this evening, where it will
stall and gradually dissipate through late Thu. Strong high
pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing moderate
to fresh easterly winds across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to
extreme southwestern Caribbean, mainly south of 13N and west of
77W where the eastern segment of the E Pacific monsoon trough is
present. The rest of the basin has fairly tranquil weather
conditions. High pressure north of the Caribbean continues to
support fresh trade winds in the eastern central, and
south-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and in
the lee of Cuba, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate or weaker
winds are found in the NW Caribbean and south of Hispaniola and
Jamaica, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea through Thu afternoon. Winds will
strengthen in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and south
of Hispaniola Thu night. Aerial coverage of strong winds will
increase through Sat night as high pressure shifts offshore the
mid- Atlantic region. Long- period northerly swells over the
Tropical N Atlantic waters will subside today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure centered
near 34N52W. The cold front is analyzed from 34N52W to 30N53W to
27N60W to 26N65W, where it becomes a stationary front to the
central Bahamas. No deep convection is noted near the frontal
boundary. Fresh north to northeast winds are present behind the
front, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Similar winds are south of
the front and west of 60W over the Bahamas to the FL peninsula
where seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become
stationary today and dissipate tonight. Another cold front will
move off the northeast Florida coast this evening. The front
will extend from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and to South
Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri
afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front,
with increasing winds and building seas across most of the
forecast waters W of 65W. Long- period north to northeast swell
will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and
Puerto Rico with rough seas during the weekend.

Farther east, an upper-level low is identified to be near
22N45W. A large amplitude surface trough is just west of the
upper low, extending along 50W from 30N to 15N. The close
proximity of these systems are creating plenty of atmospheric
instability that is promoting a rather concentrated area of
scattered moderate convection that covers from 20N to 26N
between 45W and the trough. ASCAT captured locally fresh winds
in the areas of convection, with moderate winds elsewhere
surrounding this feature.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge that is centered in the northeast part of the
Atlantic. The pressure gradient over the eastern Atlantic is
resulting in fresh to strong winds from 10N to 26N between the W
coast of Africa and around 41W. Fresh winds are also noted south
of 15N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 8-12 ft in
these waters, with the highest seas occurring in the area of
strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are noted under a weak pressure gradient.


$$
Mora
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