[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
early Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds.
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed
and early Wed night. As a result, seas will build to 8-10 ft in
the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Winds and
seas will diminish late Thu. For details on this Gale Warning,
please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 04N24W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N24W to 02N37W to
00N50W. Isolated showers are observed south of 07N and west of
30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad 1027 mb high pressure system over New England extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico and no deep convection is
seen across the basin. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds
prevail in the Gulf, except for light to gentle winds south of 20N
in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 20N and 1-3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift
eastward through Wed night in response to an upcoming cold
front. This front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed followed
by strong to near gale force north to northeast winds. Frequent
gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed and early
Wed night. This front will reach from southeastern Louisiana to
near Corpus Christi, Texas early Wed, and from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to far northeastern Mexico by early Wed evening. The
front will stall and weaken late Wed night into Thu, then begin
to dissipate through late Thu. Strong high pressure behind the
front will shift eastward through the weekend allowing for winds
to become easterly and moderate to fresh in speeds across most
of the basin. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected along and ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is affecting the waters of the SW
Caribbean Sea, mainly south of 14N and west of 79W. The rest of
the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. High pressure
north of the Caribbean continues to support moderate to fresh
trade easterly winds across the eastern and central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. Winds
occasionally reach strong speeds off southern Hispaniola and in
the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds are found
elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage. Seas are 3-5 ft in the remainder
of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate
to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
through Thu afternoon. Winds will pulse to strong speeds tonight
and Wed night south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.
Beginning late Thu afternoon, fresh to strong northeast winds will
develop in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and continue
south of Hispaniola. These winds will spread a good distance to
the southwest over the western and central Caribbean areas through
Sat night as strengthening high pressure shifts offshore the mid-
Atlantic region. Long-period north swell propagating through the
Tropical N Atlantic waters will subside on Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 25N73W, where it becomes a
stationary front to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Straits. No
deep convection is noted near the frontal boundary. Moderate to
locally fresh NE-E winds are present behind the front, along with
seas of 3-7 ft. Similar winds are evident south of 26N and west of
55W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.

Farther east, an upper level low is positioned near 21N46W and a
surface trough extends from 24N45W to 15N47W. The interaction
between these system generates scattered moderate convection
within 200 nm on both sides of the trough axis. The rest of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge
centered in the NE Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and NW Africa
sustain moderate to fresh NE-E winds south of a line from the
Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. The exception was captured
by a recent scatterometer satellite pass showing strong easterly
winds from 16N and 23N and between 30W and 37W. Seas are 6-12 ft
in these waters, with the highest seas occurring in the area of
strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a weak cold front extends from 31N59W to 26N73W, where
it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to the
Straits of Florida. The cold front will reach from near 31N53W to
25N63W and continue as a weakening stationary front to the central
Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida early on Wed. The cold front
will then become stationary, weaken during Wed and dissipate late
on Wed. A stronger cold front will move off NE Florida by Wed
night, reach from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and to South
Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri as
strong high pressure in the wake of the front moves eastward. On
Thu, expect increasing winds and building seas across most of
the forecast waters W of 65W, including the Bahamas and the
Straits of Florida. Marine conditions will continue to
deteriorate across the waters W of 55W Fri through the weekend,
with seas building to around 17 ft east of the Bahamas. Long-
period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between
the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during
the weekend leading to potentially hazardous marine conditions.

$$
DELGADO
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