[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272237
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
03N37W to 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm
on both sides of these features.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from just north of Tampa Bay to the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is along and within
30 nm ahead of this boundary. A 1016 mb is centered behind the
front near 25N92W. Winds have diminished this afternoon across
most of the waters, but there is still fresh W to NW winds N of
28N in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate and variable
winds dominate the remainder of the basin as the high pressure
settles in. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the NE Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it moves through
the E Gulf tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the
front will prevail through midweek, when another cold front will
move into the NW Gulf. Winds will increase to strong speeds
behind the front, spreading across the W Gulf and into the SW Gulf
and northern Gulf waters Wed through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough traverses the far eastern Caribbean along 62W.
This feature is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection
S of 12N and E of 64W. The other area of convection this evening
impacting Caribbean waters is located along the eastern extension
of the East Pacific monsoon trough that resides along 10N from
Colombia to Costa Rica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
associated with the trough area S of 13N and W of 75W.

The gradient between the troughs and low pressure over South
America, and a high pressure centered just SW of Bermuda is
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades across all but the NW
basin, where winds are gentle to moderate. This evening, locally
strong winds have developed offshore Colombia. Since in the NW
Caribbean area 2 to 4 ft, with 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist north of the area
through most of the upcoming week sustaining moderate to fresh
easterly breezes across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.
Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night south of Hispaniola and
the Windward Passage Tue through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh
winds in the NW Caribbean will develop Tue and continue through
the remainder of the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N44W to 25N55W to 23N60W, then
becomes stationary and extends W to 23N67W. Scattered moderate
convection extends along and within 180 nm ahead of the cold
front. Behind the front, 1020 mb high pressure is centered just SW
of Bermuda. Ahead of the front, N of 26N and W of 35W, fresh to
strong SW winds are ongoing. Winds behind the front are mainly
anticyclonic, dominated by the aforementioned high pressure, aand
are moderate or less. Long period NW to N swell, being generated
by a powerful low pressure well N of the area near 40N45W, is
impact waters behind the cold front bringing seas above 8 ft, with
12 ft seas or greater N of 27N and E of 60W. The highest seas,
near 20 ft, are noted along 30N between 45W and 55W.

On the back side of the high seas are somewhat lower, 5 to 7 ft.
SW return flow has increased to fresh to locally strong offshore
the NE Florida coast, ahead of the next cold front.

Farther S and E of the influence of the Central Atlantic cold
front, there is a zone of light to gentle winds N of 21N and W of
30W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE to E trades dominate, with
some locally strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands
and offshore Morocco. Seas in the area of fresh winds are 7 to 10
ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas where winds are lesser.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off the coast
of Florida tonight. Strong winds will prevail east of the front
before diminishing on Mon morning. The front will extend from near
Bermuda to South Florida early Tue, then stall and weaken along
25N Wed. Another cold front will move off the coast of Florida
Thu.

$$
KONARIK
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