[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
near 07N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N20W to 02N35W to 01N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite imagery
from 02N to 07N and east of 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the coast of Mississippi to 21N93W to
near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico in the southern Bay of Campeche. A line
of showers and isolated thunderstorms is occurring north of 26N
and east of 86W. Tranquil weather conditions prevail in the rest
of the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong westerly winds are occurring
in the northern Gulf waters, especially north of 27N. An elevated
site 65 nm east of the mouth of the Mississippi River is
reporting winds of 30 knots. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere in
the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will weaken as it
moves through the NE Gulf today. Fresh to strong winds behind the
front will diminish today in the NE Gulf waters. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front and prevail through midweek,
when a cold front moves into the NW Gulf by midweek. Winds will
increase to strong speeds behind the front, spreading across the W
Gulf and into the SW Gulf and northern Gulf waters on Wed through
Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and in the SW
Caribbean Sea, while patches of low-level moisture traverse the
basin and are not producing any deep convection. A 1022 mb high
pressure system between Bermuda and the SE United States is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds across the central and
eastern Caribbean, primarily south of 18N and north of 11N. Seas
in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight
seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist north of the area
through most of the upcoming week sustaining moderate to fresh
easterly breezes across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.
Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night south of Hispaniola and
the Windward Passage Tue through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh
winds in the NW Caribbean starting Tue through the remainder of
the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 28N55W to 25N64W, becoming a stationary
front to the NW Bahamas. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring
within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of
24N. Fresh to strong SW winds are also found ahead of the front,
north of 26N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft.
Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are noted behind the frontal
boundary, especially east of 70W. Seas in these waters are 8-13
ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N54W.

Farther south, scattered moderate convection is seen south of 12N
and west of 46W. The pressure gradient between a strong ridge near
the Azores and lower pressures in the deep tropics support
moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 20N and
west of 35W. The strongest winds are found near 08N39W. Seas in
the waters described are 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident in the eastern Atlantic,
primarily east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker breezes and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will continue to weaken and dissipate by Mon. Strong winds
prevailing north of 29N and W of the front will diminish below
strong force by this afternoon. Seas will subside today and Mon.
Southerly winds are increasing off NE Florida ahead of another
cold front expected to move off the coast tonight. Winds will
reach fresh to strong speeds N of 29N and W of 77W before
diminishing on Mon morning.

$$
DELGADO
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