[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The current forecast for
the next 18 hours consists of:
W gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 9 feet to 11
feet, from 30N to 31N between 61W and 64W. Strong to near-gale
force winds and rough seas will cover more of the Atlantic
Ocean, as the front moves eastward, from 26N northward, through
this evening. The wind speeds will slow down through tonight.
Large NW swell will persist from 22N northward from 70W
eastward, through late Sunday. Please, read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from
10N19W, to 05N30W and to 04N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is within 240 nm on
either side of the ITCZ between 23W and 42W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W
eastward.

The GFS model for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow, with an
inverted trough, covers the area that is from 10N to 20N between
50W and 60W. A surface trough is along 21N52W 19N55W 09N60W near
the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is from 09N to 12N
between 56W and 63W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the remainder of the area that is from 20N southward between 50W
and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through central Florida near 28.5N82W,
to 29N84W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 28N90W. A warm front
continues from 28N90W, to a 1008 mb Texas coastal plains low
pressure center that is near 29.5N 95.5W. A cold front extends
from the 1008 mb low pressure center, to 24N94W, to the northern
coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, curving
to 22N101W in interior Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong is
from 26N northward between 89W and 93W, and from 23N to 25N
between 92W and 94W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the remainder of the area that is bounded by the points that
cover the areas that are from the Florida Big Bend to the spot
where the cold front touches the northern part of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and from the cold front
northward.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 27N northward from 89W
westward. Moderate to fresh NW to W winds are behind the front
in the western Gulf waters. The sea heights that are in both
areas are ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas are elsewhere.

A stationary front extends from northern Florida to 28N90W, then
becomes a warm front westward to a 1012 mb low pressure off the
Texas coast near 29N95W. A cold front extends from the low
southward to near Veracruz, Mexico. The front will weaken as it
moves through the northeast Gulf Sun. Fresh to strong winds
behind the front will diminish late today in the western Gulf
and on Sun in the northern Gulf waters. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front and prevail through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from Colombia near 75W,
beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 11N southward from 75W westward. Broad surface low pressure
covers the areas that are from the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, through Nicaragua and Honduras, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is NE
Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within a 30
nm radius of 12N81W, about 150 nm to the east of Nicaragua.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 19N
southward from 74W westward.

A tight surface pressure gradient, that exists between the 1024
mb high pressure center that is near 37N41W, and comparatively
lower surface pressures that are in the SW Caribbean Sea, are
helping to sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds, and
sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in the eastern and
the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower
wind speeds, and slight seas, are elsewhere.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 26/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, are: 1.74 in Trinidad, 0.43
in Bermuda, and 0.12 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will prevail across the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea through midweek as a strong
ridge remains north of the area. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the gale-force wind warning, for the waters of the central
Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N341W, to 28N40W 28N49W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N
northward from 50W eastward. It is possible that some of the
precipitation that is in this area may not be related to the
cold front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are to the east of the
front from 27N northward. Combined seas to 8 feet are to the
north of the front, mainly in NW swell. The sea heights range
from 8 feet to 10 feet from 28N northward between 28W and the
cold front. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 35N15W. A
1024 mb high pressure center is near 37N41W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet in
NW swell cover the tropical Atlantic Ocean from 20N southward.
Moderate NE winds, and sea heights that range from
6 feet to 8 feet in NW swell, are off the northwest coast of
Africa. Mostly light to gentle breezes and moderate seas in NW
swell are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Florida.
Strong to gale force winds prevail north of 28N and E of the
front, with strong to near-gale force winds north of 29N W of
the front. This cold front will stall and weaken along 23N by
late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish across the region late
tonight through Sun. Southerly winds will increase off northeast
Florida Sun ahead of another cold front expected to move off the
coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the
Florida Straits Mon night, then from 31N59W to the Straits of
Florida Tue night before starting to slowly weaken.

$$
mt/al
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