[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0525 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure area off the
Carolina coast will rapidly intensify as it moves to the north of
Bermuda later this morning. A trailing cold front will sweep
rapidly eastward along with the low pressure. For waters south of
31N later this morning, this pattern will support strong to gale
force winds north of 27N east of the front, and north of 28N west
of front. Wave heights will build to 8 to 13 ft north of 28N. The
gale force winds will reach as far as 50W north of 30N through
early evening, then winds will diminish below gale force as
supporting the low pressure shifts farther north of the area.
Elsewhere, strong to near-gale force winds along with rough seas
will expand eastward with the front across the area north of 26N
through this evening. Winds will diminish through tonight, but
large NW swell will persist across the waters north of 22N and
east of 70W through late Sun.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly over the African continent,
reaching the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 09N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N20W to 05N35W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 08N and between
25W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front stretches from Steinhatchee, Florida to the
nearly stationary 1012 mb low pressure area off the coast of Texas
near 28N97W. A stationary front also extends from the low pressure
to Veracruz near 20N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen north of 26N and west of 92W. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are found north of 27N and west of 89W, while
similar NW to W winds are noted behind the front over the western
Gulf waters. Seas in the waters described are 4-7 ft. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the portion of the front over the northern Gulf
will lift northward today. Another cold front will move into the
western Gulf later this morning, merging with the residual
boundary south of the low. This front will weaken as it moves
through the northeast Gulf Sun. Fresh to strong winds are expected
behind the front, diminishing late today in the western Gulf and
on Sun in the northern Gulf waters. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front and prevail through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery
south of 17N and west of 77W, while fairly tranquil conditions are
prevalent elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. A tight pressure
gradient between the 1022 mb high pressure system north of the
area and lower pressures over the SW Caribbean sustain moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds across the eastern and central
portions of the basin. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will
prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through
midweek as a strong ridge remains north of the area. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section on the Gale Warning
issued for the central Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N35W to 27N44W, becoming a stationary
front to 25N52W to 31N61W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted
east of the front and north of 27N. Combined seas to 8 ft are
evident north of the front, mainly in NW swell. Meanwhile, seas of
8-10 ft are occurring north of 28N and west of 28W to the front.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb
high pressure system near 37N46W. Moderate to fresh trade winds
and wave heights of 6-8 ft in NW swell extend across the tropical
Atlantic south of 20N. Moderate NE winds are noted off the
northwest coast of Africa, with 6-8 ft seas in NW swell. Mostly
light to gentle breezes and moderate seas in NW swell are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, southerly winds will increase off
northeast Florida Sun ahead of a reinforcing front expected to
move off the coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda
to the Florida Straits Mon night, then from 31N59W to the Straits
of Florida Tue night before starting to slowly weaken.

$$
DELGADO
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