[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the waters
off northeast Florida late tonight, then move quickly ESE. Strong
to gale force winds will develop north of 27N E of the front on
Sat, and north of 28N W of front. Seas of 10-13 ft are expected
in the wake of the front by Sat afternoon, and will further build
to 12-15 ft by Sun morning. This cold front will reach from 31N53W
to the northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along
23N by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish across the region
late Sat through Sun.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from
08N18W to 06N35W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 33W and 44W. Similar
convective activity is observed from 09N to 12N between 50W and
55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Alabama to a 1013 mb low pressure
along the coast near Brownsville, Texas to S of Tuxpan, Mexico.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf near the
low center and front. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to
strong N to NE winds in the wake of the front over the NW Gulf
while fresh to locally strong NW to N winds are noted between
the front and the coast of Mexico. Seas are 6-7 ft near the low
center based on buoys observations, with seas of 4-6 ft elsewehre
behind the front. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft
prevail across the remainder of the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the portion of the aforementioned front east
of the low will lift north tonight. Another cold front will move
into the western Gulf Saturday, merging with the residual
boundary south of the low. This front will weaken as it moves
through the northeast Gulf Sun. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front and prevail through Wed.

Of note, a record high temperature of 88 degrees was observed at
Miami International Airport today, November 25, 2022. This breaks
the old record of 86 degrees set on this date in 1947. Records
at Miami date back to 1895.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of moderate to fresh NE-E winds across the central Caribbean, and
in the Windward Passage. gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are 4-6 ft across the east and central Caribbean, including
the Windward Passage, and 2-4 ft elsewhwere. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms, embedded in the trade wind flow, are
observed mainly over the SW Caribbean. This activity is spreading
into parts of Nicaragua and NE Honduras. Some convective activity
is also noted over Jamaica.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Atlantic and lower
pressure over the southwest Caribbean will support moderate to
fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola
through Sun night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Fresh
winds are expected across the SE Caribbean Sun night through
Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, see the Special Features section on the Gale Warning
issued for the central Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N38W to 25N50W to 26N66W. Some
shower activity is noted along and behind the front E of 50W
while mainly broken low clouds are along the frontal boundary W
of 50W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are seen north of the front.
Based on scatterometer data, an area of fresh to strong SW winds
is noted ahead of the front, roughly N of 27N and E of the front
to about 42W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft north of the front and
5-7 ft south of the front. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a
ridge extending SW from the Madeira Islands. North of 20N,
gentle to moderate winds dominate with 8-10 ft seas composed
primarily of northerly swell. South of 20N, winds increase to
moderate to fresh from the east with 7 to 9 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, please see first the Special Features
section. Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida Sun
ahead of a reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun
night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits
Mon night, then from 31N59W to the Straits of Florida Tue night
before starting to slowly weaken.

$$
GR
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