[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230402
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 01N50W.
Numerous moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N,
between 34W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 04N to 08N, between 07W and 34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from South Florida to near
23N88W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of the
boundary embedded in expansive cloudiness. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are north of the front. A surface trough extends across
the SW Gulf from a 1014 mb low pressure center near 21N92W to
near Brownsville, TX. Fresh to strong NW winds persist W of this
trough with seas of 8 to 10 ft.

For the forecast, the weakening stationary front will dissipate
overnight. Strong winds and rough seas will persist across the
central and southwest Gulf, but will diminish Wed. Looking
ahead, strong NW winds and building seas will follow another
front expected to move into the northwest Gulf Thu night. Winds
may reach minimal gale force behind the front off the coast of
Mexico west of 95W Fri into Fri night. Winds and seas will
diminish through Sun as the weakening front reaches the
southeast Gulf and broad high pressure builds over the western
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low spinning over the SE Caribbean is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This convective
activity extends into the Atlantic waters E of the Windward
Islands to about 51W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft are noted over the east and central Caribbean, and
also across the Windward Passage where seas are 5 to 6 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean with seas of
3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
across the central and northeast Caribbean into Wed, as well as
through the Windward Passage. Winds and seas will diminish
across the basin by Thu, except for occasionally fresh E winds
persisting south of Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage.
Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel
this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N46W to south Florida.
Broken and overcast skies with embedded showers are observed
north of the boundary. Moderate to fresh E winds are noted north
of the front with seas of 6 to 9 ft. The remainder of the
subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high centered
near 32N26W. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge
extending west of the high-pressure center and lower pressure in
the deep tropics is supporting moderate to fresh E-NE winds
across the majority of the central and eastern Atlantic south of
25N. Seas are 6-10 ft in within these waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from
31N47W to 28N70W to near Jupiter, Florida. The front will weaken
and drift north to along 31N tonight before moving eastward
again across the waters north of 28N through Thu. Looking ahead,
another front will move south into the waters north of 28N late
Fri, and then shift east of the area through Sat. A third front
may move off the northeast Florida coast Sun.

$$
Flynn
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