[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends to the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W. The ITCZ continues from 07N12W to 05N32W to near the
border of Suriname and Guyana at 06N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02N to 09N between 18W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Key West, Florida to Cancun,
Mexico to near 21N87W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
active along and north of the front to 29N. This convection
continues into the south-central Gulf where a 1015 mb low is
analyzed near 20N92W with an attendant surface trough extending NW
from the low to the Texas Coast near 27N97W. Another area of
scattered showers is observed north of 27N between 88W and the
trough axis. The tight pressure gradient between the strong ridge
to the north and lower pressures associated with these features is
maintaining fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the
Gulf. In the SW Gulf waters, N-NW strong to near gale force winds
are found, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Veracruz.
Seas of 8 ft or greater prevail south of 27N and west of 91W,
peaking around 12 ft in the offshore waters of Veracruz. Seas of
4-7 ft are found in the northern and eastern Gulf waters, north of
28N and east of 87W, with the exception of 2-4 ft in the nearshore
coastal waters.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. Strong high
pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong winds and
rough seas into the middle of the week. Looking ahead, strong NW
winds and building seas will follow another front expected to move
into the northwest Gulf Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish
through late Sat as the weakening front reaches the southeast
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean
near the southern Panama coast to a 1009 mb low near 09N77W.
Fresh easterly trade winds are persist from the eastern to
southwest Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring in the
eastern part of the basin, including the Windward Passage. Seas
are 5-7 ft in these waters. In the NW Caribbean, moderate trades
prevail along with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
across the central and northeast Caribbean into mid week. Winds
and seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for
occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola. Looking
ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 29N55W to 28.5N60W and continues as a
stationary front southwestward to the Straits of Florida.
Scattered showers are present near and north of the frontal
boundary west of 63W. A recent scatterometer pass reveals fresh to
strong ENE winds north of the boundaries where seas are 7-10 ft.
Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the east of the Lesser Antilles, especially from
06N to 15N and between 55W and 61W. The remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters is dominated by a 1031 mb high pressure centered
south-southwest of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the
broad ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is supporting
fresh to locally strong easterly winds across most of the central
and eastern Atlantic south of 27N. Seas are 7-10 ft within these
waters. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-6 ft seas primarily in SE
swell are found north of 27N under the high pressure.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary will weaken
and drift north to along 31N by this evening before moving
eastward again across the waters north of 28N through Thu. Looking
ahead, a another front will move south into the waters north of
28N late Fri, and then shift east of the area through Sat.

$$
Nepaul
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net