[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A stationary front passes through the NW Bahamas, to the Florida
Keys, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 24N88W. A
cold front is about 90 nm to the north and northwest of the
stationary front, from 84W in the Gulf of Mexico eastward. A
surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N88W,
to 21N94W, to 27N98W in the coastal plains of the Deep South of
Texas. Strong high pressure, that has been building behind the
front, supports strong to gale-force winds to the north and to
the west of the front and the 1014 mb low pressure center. Large
seas reaching to 20 feet
accompany these winds throughout the basin. The low pressure
center is forecast to weaken to a surface trough, while the
front will remain stalled in the southern waters through Monday.
The associated gale-force winds will be diminishing by early
Monday. The conditions will improve modestly on Monday, and then
more significantly from Tuesday through Wednesday. Please, read
the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W, to
05N30W 06N40W 07N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 36W and
43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is  within 150 nm to
the south of the ITCZ between 39W and 44W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 48W
eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
13N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 20N southward between 48W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning for the Gulf of Mexico, that
includes sea heights that range from 12 feet to 20 feet in NE
swell. The comparatively highest sea heights will be reaching 20
feet in the SW corner, and near 18 feet in the east central
sections.

A stationary front passes through the NW Bahamas, to the Florida
Keys, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 24N88W. A
cold front is about 90 nm to the north and northwest of the
stationary front, from 84W in the Gulf of Mexico eastward. A
surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N88W,
to 21N94W, to 27N98W in the coastal plains of the Deep South of
Texas. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is
between NW Cuba and the stationary front between 81W and 86W.
Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to to 1014 MB
low pres near 24N88W. A cold front is to the north across Lake
Okeechobee, Florida to offshore Naples. A surface trough extends
from near Brownsville, Texas to the eastern Bay of Campeche.
These features are combining with strong high pressure north of
the area to support strong to gale force winds north of between
the stationary front and cold front, as well as offshore
Veracruz, Mexico. Very large seas to around 20 ft accompany the
gale force winds. The low will weaken to a trough while the
front stalls across the southern waters through Mon, with
associated gales diminishing by early Mon. Conditions will
improve modestly through Mon night and then more significantly
Tue through Wed. The next cold front will move across the entire
basin Thu through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through the NW coastal sections of
Venezuela, to the coastal plains of Colombia, southwestward,
through the border of Panama and Colombia, parallel to the
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, and beyond 08N90W, into the
tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is
from 10N to 13N between 78W and 83W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 75W westward.

Broad surface low pressure, and isolated moderate to locally
strong convective precipitation, are
in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from
80W westward.

The surface pressure gradient in the NW Caribbean Sea remains
weak. The wind speeds are gentle to moderate, and the sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet. A strong ridge in the
central Atlantic Ocean, and building surface high pressure
behind two fronts that are affecting the northern Bahamas, are
maintaining fresh winds in the E Caribbean Sea, and fresh to
strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range
from 8 feet to 10 feet in the central sections, and into the SW
corner. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the
eastern sections.

The pressure gradient across the region will continue to support
fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean Sea, and fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean Sea through early Mon.
NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Windward Passage
through Tue night. Increasing winds and seas will arrive from
the east across the Tropical N Atlantic waters tonight through
Wed, and spread across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic
Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed, as a broad trough moves
westward across the region. Conditions will improve slightly Thu
as the pressure gradient weakens. Looking ahead, a cold front is
expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N67W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond
the Florida Keys, and into the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is
about 90 nm to the north and northwest of the stationary front,
from 84W in the Gulf of Mexico eastward. Precipitation: broken
to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong, are from the stationary front northward and
northwestward.
Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet
to 8 feet, are behind these two frontal boundaries. Expect fresh
winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 8 feet, are
from the stationary front eastward, and from 24N southward.
Locally strong winds are just to the north of Hispaniola. The
remaining central and eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean areas
are under the influence of the Azores 1033 mb high pressure
center, that is continuing to support mainly fresh to
locally strong winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to
10 feet.

A stationary front extends from 31N68W to the NW Bahamas to the
Florida Keys and will drift N tonight and Mon. A cold front from
31N73W to Lake Okeechobee, Florida will move southeast and merge
with the old front Mon, then will stall by Mon evening. This
boundary will then weaken and drift north to along 31N by Tue
evening before dragging southeast again across the waters north
of 28N through Wed night, then dissipate by Thu. A stronger and
more progressive cold front may move across the region by the
end of the week into the following weekend.

$$
mt/jl
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