[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1755 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from the
FLorida Keys to a 1013 mb low pressure near 24N92W with a cold
front extending from the low to the coast of Campeche near 19N91W.
These features are combining with high pressure north of the area
to support strong to gale force winds north and west of the
fronts as captured by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Very
large seas to around 20 ft accompany these winds. A buoy near
26N93W recently reported wave heights of 16 ft. The low will
weaken to a trough while the front stalls across the southern
waters through Mon, with associated gales diminishing by early
Mon. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then more
significantly Tue through Wed. Please refer to the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near
10N13W to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 06N33W to
06N45W. A surface trough is located west of the ITCZ, from 12N46W
to 03N47W. Weak showers are noted within 60 nm on both sides of
the ITCZ between 23W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 15N and between 40W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to a 1013 mb low
pressure near 24N92W and a cold front extends from the low
pressure to the coast of Campeche near 19N91W. Divergence aloft
and tropical moisture surging northward result scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from the NW coast of Cuba to the
northern Gulf coast, mainly E of 90W. Outside of the pressure
gradient north and west of the low pressure and frontal boundary,
gentle to locally fresh winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail S of 24N
and E of 91W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure and frontal
boundaries are combining with strong high pressure north of the
area to support strong to gale force winds north and west of the
fronts. Very large seas to around 20 ft accompany these winds. The
low will weaken to a trough while the front stalls across the
southern waters through Mon, with associated gales diminishing by
early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then more
significantly Tue through Wed. The next cold front will move
across the basin Thu through the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to affect the
SW Caribbean Sea, mainly S of 14N and W of 76W. A few showers are
also noted in the Gulf of Honduras and off the western tip of
Cuba. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions are seen on
satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer satellite imagery show
fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central and SW Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring
off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
seas of 4-6 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean. In the
remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas
of 3-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through early
Mon. NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Windward
Passage through Tue night. Increasing winds and seas will impact
the Tropical N Atlantic waters tonight through Wed, and spread
across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon
afternoon through Wed as a broad trough moves westward across the
region. Conditions will improve slightly Thu as the pressure
gradient weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front meanders from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and
SE Florida. Overcast skies and some light precipitation is evident
on satellite imagery near and behind the frontal boundary. Fresh
to locally strong northerly winds are noted behind the front,
along with seas of 4-7 ft. Fairly tranquil conditions are observed
ahead of the frontal in the rest of the western tropical Atlantic,
W of 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft
prevail S of 25N and between the central Bahamas and 55W.
Elsewhere N of 25N and W of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

A surface trough extends from 22N to 13N along 55W and it is
interacting with a broad upper level low, resulting in scattered
moderate convection from 12N to 21N and east of the trough to 50W.
The rest of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic is dominated
by a strong 1033 mb high pressure system south of the Azores.
Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate that fresh to strong
easterly winds are present S of 28N and between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles, with the strongest winds occurring S of 18N and between
45W and 55W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest
seas occurring in the area of the strongest winds. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are also noted S of 31N and E of 30N, with the
strongest winds affecting the waters off Morocco. Seas in the
mentioned waters are 6-12 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front has begun
to drift northward. A cold front will enter the waters off NE
Florida today, and move southeast while merging with the old
front, then will stall from south of Bermuda to extreme S Florida
Mon. This boundary will then weaken and drift north to along 31N
by Tue evening before dragging SE again across the waters N of 28N
through Wed night, dissipating by Thu.

$$
DELGADO
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