[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200844
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from the
Straits of Florida near 24N81W to 1014 mb low pressure near
25N93W with a cold front extending from the low to the SW Gulf
near 18N95.5W. These features are combining with high pressure
north of the area to support strong to strong gale force winds
north and west of the fronts as clearly indicated by overnight
ASCAT scatterometer data. Very large seas to around 20 ft are
with these winds, with a maximum of 23 ft reported at NDBC buoy
42002 earlier. The gale force winds will shift slightly east and
south today, then will diminish late tonight as the fronts and
pressure gradient weaken, with the low dissipating. Please refer
to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient
exists between a strong 1032 mb Azores high and comparatively
lower surface pressures in NW Africa are supporting gale force
winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zone. This winds are forecast
to continue to 20/12 UTC with severe gusts and large seas up to
around 14 ft during the gale force winds. Please read the High
Seas Warning and Forecast issued by Meteo-France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to
05N25W to 05N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N
to 05N east of 18W, and from 01N to 02N between 32W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near
24N81W to 1014 mb low pressure near 25N93W with a cold front
extending from the low to the SW Gulf near 18N95.5W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm of the low,
and from 21N to 26N between 85W and 91W, including just north of
the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are also occurring north of
26N between 84W and 94W. South of the front in the south-central
and southeast Gulf, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft
seas prevail, with an area of light and variable winds and 3 to 6
ft seas ahead of the cold front to around 90W.

For the forecast, the low will weaken to a trough while the front
stalls across the southern waters through Mon, with associated
gales diminishing by early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly
on Mon and then more significantly Tue through Wed. The next cold
front may move across the basin Thu through the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean
south of 14N and west of 76W with the eastern Pacific Ocean
monsoon trough located to the south across Panama and northern
Colombia. Some isolated to widely scattered showers are noted
across the central and eastern Caribbean in the trade wind flow.
Fresh to strong trades and 7 to 9 ft seas are in the central
Caribbean due to a regionally tight pressure gradient, with
moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas in the eastern
Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate trades and 3 to 5 ft seas
are in the NW Caribbean, and in the SW Caribbean south of 10N.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through early
Mon. NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Windward
Passage through Tue night. Increasing winds and seas will impact
the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through Wed, and spread
across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon
afternoon through Wed as a broad trough moves westward across the
region. Conditions will improve slightly Thu as the pressure
gradient weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a Gale
Warning in the eastern Atlantic within the Meteo-France High Seas
area.

A stationary front from just south of Bermuda across the Central
Bahamas to the Straits of Florida is weakening and beginning to
drift north. A trough is noted from 31N74.5W to near Cape
Canaveral, Florida. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas to
5 ft are west of the trough. A ridge extends from 31N60W to 26N72W
with gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas under it.
Moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are elsewhere west of
57W.

A pair of surface troughs is analyzed in the central Atlantic,
one from 31N48W to 20N53W to 10N54W, and the other from 16N45W to
02N45W. Plentiful scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N
to 22N between 40W and 53W. A tight pressure gradient is present
between these features and the Azores high north of the area. This
pattern is supporting fresh to strong trades east of the western
trough with seas of 7 to 11 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the waters off NE
Florida today, and move southeast while merging with the old
stationary front, then will stall from south of Bermuda to
extreme S Florida Mon. This boundary will then weaken and drift
north to along 31N by Tue evening before dragging SE again across
the waters N of 28N through Wed night, dissipating by Thu.

$$
Lewitsky
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