[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a 1014 mb low in the
NW Gulf near 26N96W is drifting northward. A warm front extends
from the low SE to 24N90W while a cold front extends SW towards
Veracruz, Mexico. These low pressure features combined with high
pressure north of the area are supporting gale force N to NE winds
across the NW offshore waters as well as the E of Mexico offshore
waters N of Tampico. Dangerous seas in the 8 to 17 ft range are in
those regions. East of the warm front a stationary front continues
SE to the Florida Straits. Winds N of the front and across the
eastern half of the basin are fresh to strong from the NE to E
with seas in the 5 to 10 ft range. Strong to near gale force winds
are elsewhere in the north-central basin with seas to 11 ft.

Gale force winds will spread across the north-central basin,
east-central basin, and western Bay of Campeche through Sun early
in the evening with seas peaking to 18 ft tonight. Winds across
the central and eastern portions of the basin will gradually
diminish Mon night through Wed while winds across the SW offshore
waters will maintain near gale force speeds and diminish Wed
night. Please read the Offshore Waters Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the High Seas Forecast
at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

East Atlantic Gale Winds and Rough Seas: A tight pressure
gradient between a strong 1034 mb Azores High and lower pressures
in NW Africa are causing winds and seas to increase and build.
Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds through
20/12 UTC in the Agadir Marine Zone, and through 20/00 UTC in the
Tarfaya Marine Zone. Please read the High Seas Warning and
Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 04N41W.
There is not significant convection associated with either the
African monsoon/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning across the western Gulf of Mexico. Aside from the current
conditions described above in terms of winds and seas, scattered
showers and tstms are affecting the northern basin N of 26N and
the central gulf waters from 22N to 26N between 84W and 93W.

For the forecast, the low will weaken to a trough and drift S
through Mon as high pressure strengthens N of the Gulf. The
pressure gradient will strengthen the winds and produce strong to
gale force winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico this evening
through Sun night, with seas to 18 ft. A cold front will develop E
to W across the central Gulf tonight and shift southward, then
stall across the south-central waters early Mon. Conditions will
improve modestly on Mon and then more significantly Tue through
Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low pressure in the SW Caribbean embedded in the E Pacific
extension of the monsoon trough continues to fuel numerous heavy
showers and tstms S of 16N and W of 77W. With a steady ridge in
place N of the area, trade winds across the most of the basin
remain fresh with locally strong winds in the north-central and
south-central Caribbean and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range. In the NW
Caribbean, a weaker pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate
trade winds with seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through early
Mon. Increasing winds and seas will impact the Tropical N Atlantic
waters Sun night through Wed, and spread across the NE Caribbean,
including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed as a broad
trough moves westward across the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning
and Rough Seas in the east Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from just south of Bermuda across the
Central Bahamas then continues as a frontal trough to NW Cuba.
Winds across the SW Atlantic waters are moderate to fresh S of
27N, except for locally strong winds N of Hispaniola and the
approaches of the Windward Passage. Seas in this region are in the
5 to 7 ft range. In the subtropical waters E of 45W winds are from
the NE to E and in the 20 to 30 kt wind speed range with rough
seas ranging between 8 to 11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will weaken further and
begin to drift N tonight. Tonight into early Sun, another cold
front will enter the waters off NE Florida, and move southeast
before stalling from south of Bermuda to extreme S Florida Mon.
This boundary will then weaken and drift north to along 31N by Tue
evening before dragging SE again across the waters N of 28N
through Wed night.

$$
Ramos
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