[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A surface trough curves north-northwestward from the eastern Bay
of Campeche across a 1017 mb low east of Tampico, Mexico to
southern Texas. These features are expected to gradually lift
northeastward over the weekend. Tightening gradient between them
and a surface ridge across the Gulf States will cause winds to
increase and reach strong to gale force, and seas reaching 10 to
12 ft at the northwestern Gulf by late Sat morning. These winds
will then spread into the west- central and north-central Gulf
with seas peaking at 13 to 15 ft by early Sat evening. Please read
the Offshore Waters Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the High Seas Forecast
at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

East-Central Atlantic Gale Winds and Rough Seas:
A strong 1033 mb Azores High builds toward northwest Africa behind
a cold front, causing winds and seas to build. Meteo-France is
forecasting near-gale to gale winds through 20/00 UTC in the
AGADIR Marine Zone, and by 19/06 UTC in the TARFAYA Marine Zones.
Please read the HIGH SEAS WARNING and FORECAST issued by Meteo-
France at website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the African continent based on the
latest analysis. An ITCZ extends westward from 05N15W across
04N25W to 05N31W, and then from 07N43W through 07N50W to north of
Suriname at 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to
120 nm along either side of the first ITCZ segment, and up to 100
nm north of the second segment.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a new GALE WARNING.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen at the
west-central Gulf near the 1017 mb low mentioned in the Special
Features section. A 1025 mb high over the Carolinas continues to
channel easterly winds across the Gulf. Fresh to strong ENE to SE
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the northwestern and
west-central Gulf, except a narrow band of NW winds along the
Mexican coast, including the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh with
locally strong ENE to E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are seen
across the north-central and south-central Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft are evident at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to
fresh NE to ENE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, high pressure to the north of the area is
supporting fresh to strong winds across the majority of the basin.
The low and trough mentioned in the Special Features section will
drift north over the weekend. The pressure gradient between these
features and a new high pressure across the south-central U.S.
will strengthen the winds and produce strong to gale-force winds
across much of the Gulf of Mexico late Sat afternoon through Sun
night. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then
significantly Tue through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line reaches southwestward from central Cuba to near the
Mexico-Belize border. Meanwhile, a surface trough is seen to the
south over the Gulf of Honduras. Interaction between these
features along with abundant moisture is generating scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern basin, including
the Yucatan Channel. Convergent trade winds just north of the tail
end of the East Pacific monsoon trough are triggering scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southwestern basin,
north of Panama but near northwestern Colombia.

An ENE to E trade-wind pattern continues for much of the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
evident at the central basin. Moderate to fresh trades with 4 to 6
ft seas are found at the eastern and northwestern basin. Mainly
moderate trades and seas at 5 to 6 ft are evident at the
southwestern basin, except gentle to moderate monsoonal winds are
just north of Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will
support moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several
days, pulsing to strong at night in the central Caribbean this
weekend. A shear line across the Yucatan Channel will gradually
dissipate through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail
across the Yucatan Channel through early Sat, while seas build
across the far northwestern Caribbean through tonight. Increasing
winds and seas will impact the Tropical North Atlantic waters Sun
night through Wed, and across the northeastern Caribbean,
including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed as a broad
trough moves by.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above on gale winds and
rough seas at the East-central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda
across 31N62W and the Central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 nm
northwest and 50 nm southeast of the front. A pronounced upper-
level trough extends northeastward from a low near 19N50W to
beyond 31N at 37W. Aided by two surface troughs in the vicinity,
scattered moderate convection is seen from 12N to 28N between 40W
and 53W. A third surface trough further southeast near 05N33W is
causing scattered showers from 01N to 06N between 31W and 36W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

A 1033 mb Azores High is channeling moderate to fresh NNE to ESE
trades with 7 to 10 ft seas in northerly swell north of 12N
between the Africa coast and 50W. To the west, gentle to moderate
ENE to ESE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are seen north of 19N
between 50W and the aforementioned stationary front. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
exist behind the stationary front to the Georgia-Florida coast.
Farther south, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE trades with 5 to 8 ft
seas in easterly swell are present from the Equator to 19N
between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle NE and SE
winds with 6 to 8 ft in northerly swell prevail for the rest of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds south of
27N and west of the stationary front will prevail through
tonight. The front will gradually wash out and begin to retreat
Sat and Sat night. Early Sun, another cold front will enter the
waters off northeastern Florida, and move southeast before
stalling from south of Bermuda to the Straits of Florida late Mon.
This boundary will then weaken and drift north to along 31N early
Wed before moving southeast again across the central Atlantic
waters.

$$

Chan
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