[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180908
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A surface ridge extends southwestward
from a strong 1031 mb high over Louisiana along eastern Mexico.
Meanwhile, a 1017 mb low is located offshore Veracruz near
21.5N95.5W. A tight pressure gradient between these two features
will sustain strong to gale northerly winds across the western Bay
of Campeche through the next few hours. Seas are peaking at 12-15
ft at the western Bay of Campeche, and 10 to 13 ft at the west-
central Gulf. Both winds and seas should gradually decrease later
this morning through tonight. The pressure gradient is forecast to
tighten once more Sat evening through Sun night with gale force
winds spreading from the northern Gulf southward. Very large seas
up to 15-17 ft may build with these winds this weekend. Conditions
should improve by the end of the weekend into early next week.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

Agadir and Tarfaya Marine Zones Gale Warning: Meteo-France is
forecasting near-gale to gale winds in the east-central Atlantic
as strong high pressure builds behind an approaching cold front.
Gales are forecast to begin by 18/18Z in Agadir and by 18/21Z in
Tarfaya, diminishing 19/12Z in both marine zones.
Refer to website:
http://gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.2105.
172105434491.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the African continent based on the
latest analysis. An ITCZ extends west-northwestward from southwest
of the coast of Africa near 04N14W to 08N35W to 08N53W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 37W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted elsewhere from 02N to 13N between 19W and 37W,
and from 10N to 17N between 32W and 43W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough along with an
embedded 1008 mb low near central Panama are triggering scattered
heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the coast of Panama
and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends from just south of the Yucatan Channel
to across the northern Yucatan Peninsula to 1017 mb low pres in
the SW Gulf near 21N95.5W. A trough extends from the low to the
Mexico Texas border and along the Texas coastal waters. Scattered
thunderstorms are from 21N to 23N between 91W and 94W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are also possible near the low. Rain is
likely occurring elsewhere across the southeastern half of the
basin, and the interaction between cold, denser air from the Gulf
States and warmer, moist air in the Gulf is creating extensive
mid to high-level cloudiness over the northern Gulf.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds and seas
of 7-10 ft are present across the Gulf waters from 22N to 26N,
including through the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh N-NE
winds are elsewhere along with 3-6 ft seas, except 2-4 ft in the
NE Gulf coastal waters.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate to a sharp
trough later today. Gale force winds within 120 nm of Veracruz
Mexico will diminish in the next few hours, with fresh to strong
winds elsewhere in the SW Gulf and from 22N to 26N. The surface
trough and low will linger over the weekend. The gradient between
this low pres and high pres across the south-central U.S. will
produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of
Mexico late Sat through Sun night. Conditions should gradually
improve early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from western Cuba to just south of the
Yucatan Channel to north of Cozumel, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds
are north of the boundary while seas of 7-10 ft in N swell are
spilling through from the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are
possible near the front. A surface trough is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
northwestern and west-central basin, including the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the remainder of the
basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central Caribbean, 2-4 ft between
Cuba and Jamaica, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Gentle to moderate
monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail near Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will
support moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several
days, pulsing to strong in the central Caribbean this weekend. The
stationary front near the Yucatan Channel will gradually dissipate
through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail north of the
front across the Yucatan Channel through early Sat, while seas
build across the far NW Caribbean through Fri night. Increasing
winds and seas may impact the NE Caribbean including Atlantic
Passages early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on gales being
forecast by Meteo-France in the north-central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from just east of Bermuda to across the
Central Bahamas where it becomes stationary to N central Cuba.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found
near and up to 90 nm southeast of the front between 68W and 75W.
Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are west of the front,
except locally fresh from the central Bahamas through the Straits
of Florida. Light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas in SE swell are
elsewhere north of 26N and west of 55W, under a ridge extending
from a 1031 mb Azores High north of the area. Moderate to fresh
trades and 5-7 ft seas are south of 26N and west of 55W.

A pair of surface troughs are analyzed in the central Atlantic,
one from 31N41W to 19N39W, and the other from 20N53W to 14N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted between the troughs from
17N to 24N between 44W and 51W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The
Azores high is supporting moderate to fresh trades east of 40W,
with mainly moderate trades between 40W and 55W. Seas are 6-8 ft
east of 55W, except 4-6 ft southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will completely stall
later this morning. Fresh N winds will blow from the western
Bahamas through the Straits of Florida through tonight. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend,
another cold front will enter the waters east of Florida, bringing
fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front may stall out
across the central portion early next week, eventually retreating
northward.

$$
Lewitsky
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