[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172225
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front that earlier moved through the SW Gulf of Mexico has
induced gales offshore Veracruz, Mexico. These gales will continue
into tonight has high pressure centered in Texas spills southward
down the Mexican coast. Seas of 12 to 14 ft can be expected.
Conditions will improve Fri as the front and high pressure weaken
and move E of the area. Low pressure is forecast to develop in the
western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, which may bring new gales to
much of the western Gulf late Sat through Sun night. Strong to
near gale force winds are also possible in the eastern Gulf during
this time. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Meteo-France is forecasting near gale to gale force winds in
Agadir and Tarfaya marine zones in the NE Atlantic over the next
24 hours. For details, refer to
http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.09
17.1709172829475.html .

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 07N28W to 08N50W to 09N59W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between
28W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
gales in the SW Gulf of Mexico into Fri.

A cold front has moved SE of the basin today. In its wake, a large
area of strong NE winds encompass the central and west-central
Gulf of Mexico. The remainder of the basin generally has fresh NE
winds, although winds have diminished to moderate near the
northern Gulf coast of the United States, as well as in the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas in the west central Gulf range from
8 to 12 ft, with generally 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. As with the winds,
seas are lower near the northern Gulf coast of the U.S., averaging
3 to 5 ft.

Significant moisture overrunning the colder air closer to the
water brought in by the cold front is leading to scattered
moderate convection over a broad area of the Central Gulf.

For the forecast, strong winds will prevail over the SW Gulf
tonight. A surface trough will extend from the SW Gulf to the NW
Gulf over the weekend while low pressure may form along the
trough. The gradient between this low and high pressure across
the south- central U.S. will produce strong to gale force winds
across much of the Gulf of Mexico late Sat through Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh NE to E trades dominate the basin. Locally
strong winds exist in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Venezuela.
The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet in the central
Caribbean Sea, from 4 feet to 6 feet in the eastern part of the
basin, and from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea. A
surface trough extends from just SW of Jamaica, northward across
eastern Cuba, and into the SW Atlantic. Scattered moderate
convection is noted on the SW edge of this trough, in a zone from
14N to 19N between 78W and 82W. To the south of this area of
convection, the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon
trough extends from Costa Rica to Colombia along 10N. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection in association with this
trough dominates areas S of 11N. A cold front has entered the
Yucatan Channel this afternoon, but currently is not inducing any
convection in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will
support moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several
days. A cold front over the SE Gulf of Mexico is forecast to reach
the Yucatan Channel this evening, then stall through Fri. Fresh
to strong NE winds will prevail behind the front across the
Yucatan Channel, while seas build across the far NW Caribbean
through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on gales being
forecast by Meteo-France in the NE Atlantic.

A cold front extends from just W of Bermuda, through the NW
Bahamas, and into western Cuba. To the SE, a surface trough
extends from 26N70W, through the SE Bahamas, and into eastern
Cuba. No significant convection is occurring with either of this
features. Winds behind the front are moderate to fresh out of the
NE, with winds ahead of it light to gentle, to the N of 24N and W
of 50W. To the S and E of this area of lesser winds, moderate to
fresh trades dominate. A relatively benign surface trough extends
along 41W from 15N to 30N. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across the
basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and stall from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba tonight. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend,
another cold front will enter the waters east of Florida, bringing
fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it.

$$
KONARIK
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