[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A stationary front is along 21N90W 21N93W 18N93.5W. A surface
trough is along 21.5N95W 26N97W. Expect NW gale-force winds, and
sea heights to range from 10 feet to 12 feet, from 19N to 21N
between 95W and 97W, including within 60 nm of the coast of
Veracruz in Mexico. Strong high pressure, that is building in
Texas, will help to tighten the surface pressure gradient in the
Gulf of Mexico through Friday. Expect increasing wind speeds and
building sea heights in most of the Gulf of Mexico, with gale
force winds in the SW Gulf through early Fri. A trough, or a low
pressure center, is forecast to develop in the western Gulf
during the upcoming weekend. It is possible that this pattern
may bring gale-force wind conditions in most of the western
Gulf, and strong to near gale-force winds in the eastern and in
the south central Gulf, from late Saturday through Sunday night.
Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

The outlook period, for the next 24 hours, for the METEO-FRANCE
forecasts, consists of the threat of Northeast near gale or gale-
force winds in AGADIR and in TARFAYA. Please, refer to the
following website,
http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.09
17.1709172829475.html for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough stays inland, reaching the northern sections
of Liberia. The ITCZ passes through the coastal sections of
southern Sierra Leone, to 08N19W 06N25W 07N31W 07N45W 10N55W
09N59W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 03N
to 08N between 28W and 37W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are in
the remainder of the area that is from 18N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force winds. A Gale Warning still exists for the SW Gulf of
Mexico. The wind speeds are are forecast to diminish to less
than gale-force by early Friday afternoon. The weather
conditions in the Gulf of Mexico will deteriorate again, during
the upcoming weekend as a surface trough, or a low pressure
center, develops. Please read the Special Features section, and
the last paragraph that is in the Gulf of Mexico section, for
details. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the central
Gulf. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet in the west
central Gulf and in the SW Gulf. The sea heights range from 4
feet to 7 feet elsewhere. Abundant cloudiness, with possible
rainshowers, are in most of the Gulf region. The current cold
frontal boundary passes through the Straits of Florida, to the
Yucatan Channel, to the SW Gulf of Mexico, where the front is
stationary.

A cold front extends from the Upper Florida Keys to Cancun,
Mexico and continues as a stationary front to the central Bay of
Campeche. The cold front will move just SE of the basin by this
evening while the stationary portion becomes a sharp surface
trough over the SW Gulf. Gale force NW winds will prevail within
about 120 nm of the Mexican coast near Veracruz through tonight
while strong winds prevail elsewhere over the SW Gulf. The
surface trough over the SW Gulf will continue in that
location into the upcoming weekend as the next cold front moves
into the NW Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is likely to bring
strong to gale force winds for much of the NW and west central
Gulf during the weekend. These conditions will spread to the
central and SW Gulf as the weekend progresses.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are in the eastern and
central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trade
winds are near the coast of Colombia. Mainly fresh NE winds are
in the Windward Passage. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8
feet in the central Caribbean Sea, from 4 feet to 6 feet in the
eastern part of the basin, and from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW
Caribbean Sea. A surface trough curves along 26N71W in the
Atlantic Ocean, 22N75W in the Bahamas, through SE Cuba, to
17N75W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 240 nm on either side of the surface trough. Shallow
moisture that is embedded in the trade wind flow will move
across the region, producing isolated to scattered passing
rainshowers.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 17/1200 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.22 in Curacao, 0.17
in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.11 in Trinidad.

The monsoon trough is along 11N75W in coastal Colombia,
southwestward, beyond 09N78W in Panama, into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 08N79W.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 240 nm of the 1009 mb
low pressure center in the NW quadrant. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 18N southward, from 74W
westward. The GFS model for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind
flow in the southwestern quadrant of the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central
Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support
moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several days. A
cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late today,
and stall across the far NW Caribbean Fri. Fresh to strong NE
winds will prevail behind the front across the Yucatan Channel,
while seas build across the far NW Caribbean through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NW-to-SE oriented cold front is from 150 nm to 250 nm to the
east of Florida. The first surface trough is about 120 nm to the
east and southeast of the cold front. A second surface trough is
about 240 nm to the southeast of the first surface trough. The
second trough curves along 26N71W, 22N75W in the Bahamas,
through SE Cuba, to 17N75W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the west of
the line 31N60W 20N70W. Moderate to fresh NW winds, and sea
heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the wake of the
front.

The remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of
broad surface anticyclonic wind flow. A 1021 mb high pressure
center is near 31N55W. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near
32N29W. A second 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N39W.
The pressure gradient that is between the high pressure, and
lower pressures that are in the deep tropics, supports moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds in much of the east and central
tropical Atlantic Ocean. Northerly swell continues to propagate
across most of forecast waters that are to the E of 55W, with
the sea heights ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet. The sea heights
have increased just to the E of the Madeira Islands and the
Canary Islands, where the sea heights range from 10 feet to 14
feet. An upper level trough, that is at least 1100 nm to the
west of Africa, continues to generate some rainshower activity.

A cold front extends across the NW waters from 31N75W to Key
Largo in Florida. The front will move SE and stall from near
Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida tonight.
Fresh N winds will briefly follow the front through early this
morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.
Another cold front will enter the NE Florida waters during the
weekend, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds behind it.

$$
mt/ah
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