[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Resent
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
A dominant 1033 mb high over Texas and Oklahoma will continue to
channel northerly winds across the Gulf. Northerly winds at the
offshore waters from near Tampico southward to the western Bay of
Campeche, Mexico are expected to remain at near-gale to gale force
through early Fri morning. Seas currently at 8 to 10 ft will
build further and reach 11 to 15 ft Thu evening. Please read the
high seas forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
the OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the African continent based on the
latest analysis. An ITCZ extends westward from west of the Sierra
Leone coast at 07N16W to 08N31W, then from 06N37W across 06N45W
to north of French Guiana at 10N52W. Scattered moderate convection
is found up to 180 nm along either side of the first ITCZ segment,
and up to 100 nm north and 60 nm south of the second segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough along with an
embedded 1008 mb low near over central Panama are triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms near Panama and northwestern
Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on a Gale Warning.

A cold front stretches southwestward from near Naples, Florida,
passing near the Yucatan north coast to the central Bay of
Campeche, then curves southward as a stationary front to near
Villahermosa, Mexico. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 140 nm north of the
boundary. Outside the Gale Warning area and behind the cold
front, moderate to fresh NNE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
present at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong NE winds with 6
to 8 ft seas are seen across the northwestern and north-central
Gulf. South of the cold front, gentle to moderate ENE winds with 2
to 4 ft seas are found in the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel.
East of the stationary front, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh northerly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail at the central
and eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the cold front will move further southeastward
and extend across the far southeastern Gulf on Thu morning, then
over western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula by Thu
evening. Strong to gale force northerly winds prevail within 120
nm of the Mexican coast to the W of the front. Strong high
pressure building over Texas will further tighten the pressure
gradient across the Gulf through Fri. As a result, expect strong
to gale winds and rough seas across most of the basin, through
early Fri. A trough is forecast to develop over the western Gulf
during the upcoming weekend. This pattern could spread gale
conditions across much of the western Gulf, and strong to near
gale winds over the eastern and south-central Gulf Sat evening
through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms near
southeastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Windward Passage. Convergent
trades are causing similar weather at the Gulf of Honduras.
Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge continues to sustain a NE to ENE
trade-wind regime across most of the basin. Fresh to locally
strong trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found at the central
basin. Moderate to fresh trades with 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the
eastern basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and seas of 4
to 5 ft are evident north of Panama. Gentle to moderate trades and
seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high
pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh
trade winds during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong
NE winds will pulse off Colombia tonight and again Sat night. A
cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, and
stall across the northwestern Caribbean Fri. Strong NE winds will
prevail behind the front across the Yucatan Channel, while seas
build across the far northwestern basin through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches southwestward from off the Carolina coast
across 31N77W to near Melbourne, Florida. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted near and up to 50 nm northwest of
the front. The southern end of a mid-latitude trough over the
north-central Atlantic is producing scattered moderate convection
from 19N to 30N between 35W and 51W. Two surface troughs are
causing similar conditions in the Tropical Atlantic from 08N to
13N between 52W and 57W, and from 05N to 11N between 31W and 36W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

The ridge associated with the 1023 mb high near 32N41W is
sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate
northerly swell north of 24N between 53W and the central/southern
Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NW winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are
evident northwest of the aforementioned cold front. Gentle to
moderate NNE to ENE trades and seas at 8 to 10 ft in large
northerly swell are found across the northeast Atlantic north of
22N between the northwest African coast and 53W, including the
Canary Islands. To the south, gentle to moderate NE to E trades
with 7 to 9 ft seas exist from 09N to 22N/24N between the central
African coast and the Lesser Antilles/53W. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in southerly
swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the cold front extends across the northern
Florida offshore waters from 31N78W to central Florida. The front
will move southeastward and stall from near Bermuda across the
northwest Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu night. Fresh NW
winds will briefly follow the front tonight through early Thu.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the
weekend, another cold front will enter the northern Florida
waters, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds behind it.

$$

Chan
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