[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf will
reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico this morning, and
from N Florida near 29N82W to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed
morning. The front will reach the SE Gulf on Thu morning. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will follow the front with a small area
of gale force winds near Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon into
tonight. By Wed, strong high pressure will build over Texas,
tightening the pressure gradient across the Gulf region. As a
result, expect increasing winds and building seas across the
basin, with gale force winds over the SW Gulf, including the
Veracruz area, from late Wed through Thu night. Seas are forecast
to build to 14-17 ft over the SW Gulf by late Thu.

Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea
border through 11N15W then continues SW to near 08N25W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N25W to 10N40W to 09N50W to 09N60W. A weak surface
trough is within the ITCZ along 42W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 10W and 20W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 02N to 09N
between 06W and 30W.


The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean,
mainly S of 13N and W of 80W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weather conditions across the Gulf of Mexico will be associated
with a cold front moving across the basin through at least Thu.
Gale force winds are expected in the wake of the front over the SW
Gulf. Please read the Special Features section above for details.
Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are associated with
the front, particularly north of 26N. Recent scatterometer data
indicate fresh to strong SE to S winds N of 26N E of the front to
about 87W with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
dominate the remainder of the Gulf ahead of the front with seas of
3-5 ft, except 1-3 ft over much of the eastern Gulf E of 87W.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft currently
follow the front.

For the forecast, please see the Special Features section.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of moderate
to locally fresh trade winds across the east and central Caribbean,
with fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage, and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the NW Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are over the NE Caribbean affecting parts of Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands. The San Juan Doppler Radar confirmed the presence
of this convective activity that is more concentrated over the SE
part of the island. Elsewhere, low-topped trade wind showers are
noted.

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean
will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next
several days. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in the
Windward Passage through Wed. A cold front is forecast to reach
the Yucatan Channel late Thu, and move over the NW Caribbean Thu
nigh into Fri. Fresh NE winds and building seas will follow the
front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches from near Bermuda to northern Florida.
Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft are seen N of the front.
A surface trough is analyzed from 31N61W to 22N67W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are on the E side of the trough covering
the waters from 20N-31N between the trough axis and 60W. An upper
level low is spinning near 23N48W. A trough extends from the low
center to the NE Caribbean where is enhancing some convective
activity. Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, are on the SE
semicircle of the low/trough. these clouds extends from Trinidad
and Tobago eastward to near 50W, then NE across the central
tropical Atlantic. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is
under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure located near
31N41W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower
pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to locally strong
easterly winds over much of the central tropical Atlantic while
mainly moderate trades prevail over the eastern Atlantic.
Northerly swell continues to dominate most of forecast waters E of
55W with seas of 7-10 ft based on altimeter data.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will weaken today.
The next cold front will move off NE Florida early Wed, reach
from 31N74W to south Florida by Thu morning, and from 31N66W to
western Cuba by Fri morning. Fresh NW winds will briefly follow
the front on Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net