[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142240
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move through
the Gulf of Mexico Tue into Tue night, bringing gale force NW
winds offshore Veracruz Tue night into early Wed. Please read the
HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border area of the coastal
plains of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W to 07N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N24W to 04N29W to 07N35W. A nearly stationary
surface trough is along 37W from 03N to 13N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 11N and E of 35W and within 150 nm W of
the surface trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
forecast for gale-force winds that will develop being a cold
front during the next 36 hours.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to 23N90W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the Texas
coast, in association with another stationary front located just
inland.


A cold front passes through the northern part of Andros Island
in the Bahamas, to 24N80W in the Straits of Florida, to 24N82W.
The front is stationary from 24N82W to 23N90W. A surface trough
continues from 23N90W to 23N97W. A shear line is along 23N97W to
the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Across the western Gulf, moderate to fresh southerly
return flow has developed, with some locally strong winds near the
Texas and Louisiana coasts. Elsewhere over the eastern and
central Gulf, N of the stationary front, mainly moderate E winds
prevail. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, the next cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Gulf this evening and will reach from SE Louisiana to near
Tampico, Mexico by Tue morning, and from N Florida near 29N82W to
the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Scattered
thunderstorms will accompany the front tonight through early Tue
over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will follow the front with a small area of gale force winds near
Veracruz, Mexico Tue afternoon into Tue night. By Wed, strong high
pressure will build over Texas, tightening the gradient. As a
result, winds will increase and seas will build across the basin.
Gale force winds will likely regenerate near Veracruz from late
Wed through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Mona Passage to around 13N.
Convection previously associated with this feature has dissipated,
leaving dry conditions over most of the basin. The except is
scattered moderate convection that has developed from Nicaragua to
Colombia, S of 11N, in associated with the eastern extension of
the east Pacific monsoon trough.

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly moderate trade
winds and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet. The
exceptions are in the NW Caribbean and near the offshore waters of
Costa Rica and Panama, where seas average 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean
will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next
several days. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan
Channel late Thu, and move over the NW Caribbean Thu night. Fresh
NE winds and building seas will follow the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from just NW of Bermuda, through the central
Bahamas, and into the Florida Straits. A pre-frontal trough
extends from just SE of Bermuda, through the Turks and Caicos, and
into SE Cuba. Little convection is associated with these two
features but scattered moderate convection is occurring with a
second surface trough to the east. This trough extends from 30N66W
to the Mona Passage, and is inducing numerous moderate convection
N of 21N between 60W and 65W. Behind the cold front, mainly
moderate NE to E winds prevail. E of the surface trough, moderate
SE winds dominate, with light to gentle winds prevailing in
between the two features. Seas W of 55W average 5 to 7 ft, with
lower heights around the Bahamas.

Farther E, a dissipating cold front passes through 31N19W to
22N34W and 27N45W. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail behind this
front, with moderate to fresh trades to the S, continuing across
the entire tropical Atlantic S of 20N. Seas E of 55W range from 6
to 9 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh NE winds and rough seas N of 29N
will gradually decrease as a cold front gradually weakens through
Tue. The next cold front will move off NE Florida early Wed, and
reach from 31N73W to central Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh NW winds
will briefly follow the front Thu before weakening as high
pressure builds through Fri.

$$
KONARIK
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