[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The 24-hour forecast, for Tuesday morning, consists of a cold
front along 30N89W 22N98W. The northerly wind speeds will be
increasing to the range from 20 knots to 30 knots, and the sea
heights will be reaching to 8 feet, from 22N to 30N between 91W
and 98W. Expect on Tuesday night: gale-force NW winds, and sea
heights at 8 feet, from 19N to 20N between 95W and 96W,
including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. The
cold front will be along 30N85W 18N95W, on Tuesday night. The
wind speeds are forecast to become less than gale-force, during
the late night and early morning hours of Wednesday, before the
sunrise. Please, read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, at the following
website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border area of the coastal
plains of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W, to 07N24W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N24W, to 04N29W 07N35W. A surface trough
is along 36W/37W from 03N to 13N. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N southward from
35W eastward, and within 150 nm to the west of the surface
trough and within 120 nm to the east of the surface trough.
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 44W eastward, and within
240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 44W
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
14N southward between 44W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
forecast for gale-force winds, with a cold front, during the
next 36 hours.

A cold front passes through the northern part of Andros Island
in the Bahamas, to 24N80W in the Straits of Florida, to 24N82W.
The front is stationary from 24N82W to 23N90W. A surface trough
continues from 23N90W to 23N97W. A shear line is along 23N97W to
the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 24N northward from
87W westward. The clouds and precipitation are moving northward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 13N in the Caribbean Sea to 26N in the Gulf of
Mexico, between the Dominican Republic and 100W in Mexico.

Moderate to fresh NE-E winds, and sea heights that range from 4
feet to 7 feet, are from the front northward. Light to gentle
winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are
from the frontal boundary southward.

The frontal boundary currently across the southern Gulf will
lift northward today ahead of the next cold front forecast to
enter the NW Gulf this evening. The new cold front will reach
from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by Tue morning, and
from N Florida near 29N82W to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed
morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front
with a small area of gale force winds near Veracruz, Mexico Tue
afternoon into Tue night. By Wed, strong high pressure will
build over Texas, tightening the gradient. As a result, winds
will increase and seas will build across the basin. Gale force
winds will likely regenerate near Veracruz from late Wed through
Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 67W/68W from 13N in the Caribbean Sea,
to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is from 76W eastward.

A weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate trade
winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet. The
exceptions are: from 1 foot to 3 feet, in the NW Caribbean Sea,
and near the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 14/1200 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 1.38 in Nassau in the
Bahamas, and 0.61 in Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from the coast of Colombia
near 75W westward, through Panama/Costa Rica westward, into the
Tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 15N southward, from 70W westward. A 1010
mb low pressure center is near 10N81W.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the central
Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support
moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next several
days. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel on
Thu, and move over the NW Caribbean Thu night. Fresh to strong
NE winds and building seas will follow the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N70W, to the northern tip of
Andros Island in the Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida near
24N80W, to 24N82W. A surface trough passes through 31N66W, to
the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba, to eastern Jamaica. A second surface
trough is along 67W/68W from 13N in the Caribbean Sea, to 28N in
the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 500 nm to 600 nm to the east of the
two surface troughs. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from the surface troughs westward. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6
feet, are in the wake of the front.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N20W to 24N34W and
28N46W. A surface trough is along 28N23W 20N35W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 50W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N43W, to 33N52W, 28N57W, to 19N61W.

An upper level trough is along 26N52W 20N57W, to the northern
coastal areas of Guyana. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 05N at the coast of French
Guiana to 20N between 45W and 63W, including in the coastal
plains and in the coastal waters of South America between French
Guiana and NE Venezuela.

Fresh to strong southerly winds, and sea heights that are
reaching 8 feet, are from 29N northward between 59W and 63W.
These marine conditions are found also on the western side of
the 1028 mb high pressure center. The pressure gradient, that is
between the 1028 mb high pressure and lower pressures in the
deep tropics, supports fresh to strong easterly winds in much of
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Northerly swell
and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, cover the
waters that are from 55W eastward.

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N70W
to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds and building
seas will affect the waters N of 29N today as the front
gradually weakens through Tue. The next cold front will move off
NE Florida on Wed, and reach from 31N67W to central Cuba by Thu
night. Fresh NW to N winds will briefly follow the front through
Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$
mt/df/ah
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