[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent and reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 10N17W. The ITCZ continues from 10N17W to
06N35W and then from 07N37W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. A
surface trough interrupts the ITCZ along 36W. Scattered moderate
convection to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to
09N and between 21W and 29W. Similar convection is noted from 04N
to 10N and between 30W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Florida to near 23N88W, where it
transitions into a stationary front that stretches southwestward
into the central Bay of Campeche. A dry weather pattern is evident
on satellite imagery behind and ahead of the frontal boundary,
with only a few shallow showers near this weather feature. The
pressure gradient between the front and a strong high pressure
over the Mississippi Valley result in moderate to fresh NE-E winds
behind the cold front, including the offshore waters of Veracruz.
Seas behind the front are 5-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from near Naples, Florida to
23N88W where it becomes stationary to the central Bay of
Campeche. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8-9 ft are noted
over the SW Gulf behind the front. These marine conditions will
continue to diminish tonight. The next cold front is forecast to
move into the NW Gulf Monday evening and reach from SE Louisiana
to near Tampico, Mexico by Tue morning, and from the Florida Big
Bend to the Bay of Campeche Tue night. Fresh to strong northerly
winds will follow the front with an area of gale force winds
possible near Veracruz on Wed as high pressure behind the front
strengthens. This front will move SE of the area on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An unstable atmosphere and plenty of tropical moisture are
producing some showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean
Sea, mainly south of 14N and west of 79W. No deep convection is
occurring in the remainder of the Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
E-NE winds are present over much of the Caribbean, including the
entrance of the Windward Passage. The exception is light to
gentle winds in the waters off Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
Haiti and Costa Rica to NW Colombia. Seas in the 2-5 ft range
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient across the basin will
support gentle to moderate trade winds during the next several
days. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel on
Thu, and move over the NW Caribbean Thu and Thu night. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N73W to SE Florida, while east
of the frontal boundary, a surface trough stretches from near
31N70W to the central Bahamas. Divergence aloft and tropical
moisture being drawn northward are generating showers and
thunderstorms over a good portion of the western tropical
Atlantic. The activity is mainly concentrated within 90 nm on both
sides of the trough axis. Farther east, another area of similar
convection is noted north of 20N and between 58W and 66W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh
northerly winds are found behind the frontal boundary. Seas in
these waters are 4-6 ft. Between the cold front and about 65W, a
weak pressure gradient allow for primarily light to gentle
northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb
high pressure system centered near 33N44W. The pressure gradient
between this feature and lower pressures in the deep tropics
sustain fresh to strong easterly winds over much of the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic, especially between 30W and 65W. The
strongest winds are found in the waters east of the Windward
Islands, south of 14N. Seas are 6-9 ft in the discussed waters.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front stretches across the
western Atlantic from 31N73W to near West Palm Beach, Florida.
Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will affect the N
waters on Mon with the front reaching the NE part of the forecast
area by Mon night. The next cold front will move off NE Florida on
Wed, and reach from 31N74W to the Straits of Florida by Thu
morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$
DELGADO
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