[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to
07N21W 07N31W 05N40W 02N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 50W
eastward, and from 10N to 20N between 48W and 60W, and from 10N
southward between 50W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N80W, to just to the north of the
Tampa Florida metropolitan area, to 24N90W, and curving to the
northern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Some earlier wind speeds at 13/0300 UTC were showing near gale-
force speeds near the coast of Mexico at 20N96.5W. Strong N wind
speeds were within 75 nm of the coast of Mexico from 24N
southward. Fresh to strong N winds were elsewhere from 92W
westward. Fresh to strong N winds were to the north of the cold
front from 27N northward between the Florida Big Bend and 90W.
Gentle to moderate wind speeds were in the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico. The sea heights were ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet from
27N southward from 90W westward. The sea heights were ranging from
4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from 90W westward. The sea heights were
ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet from the cold front northward
between 84W and 90W, and from 2 feet to 4 feet from 84W eastward.
The sea heights were ranging from 2 feet and less from the cold
front southward between 84W and 90W. Precipitation: rainshowers
are possible within 60 nm on either side of the cold front. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds are from the cold front northward.

A cold front extends from near Tampa, Florida to near Veracruz,
Mexico. The front will extend from southwest Florida to central
Bay of Campeche this evening and dissipate by Mon. Strong N winds
and rough seas behind the front are on an abating trend through
the day. The next cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf
Monday evening and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
Campeche Tue night. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front
with possible gale conditions near Veracruz on Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The base of an upper level trough reaches 62W/63W near NE
Venezuela. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor satellite imagery from 11N to 20N between 58W and 68W.
A surface trough is along 63W/64W from 13N to 20N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the east
of the surface trough from 17N to 20N.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor satellite imagery also is to the west and to the
northwest of the line that runs from SE Cuba to the northwestern
half of Nicaragua. A narrow upper level trough is at the leading
edge of the drier air. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 90 nm on either side of the line that
runs from 13N81W to 16N78W to Jamaica to SE Cuba near 20N76W,
including in the southern coastal waters of Hispaniola.

Fresh wind speeds are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Moderate to fresh wind speeds are from 70W eastward. Gentle to
moderate wind speeds are from 80W westward. The sea heights range
from 3 feet to 5 feet from 10N northward from 80W eastward. The
sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere.

The monsoon trough passes through 10N/11N, from 74W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica and Nicaragua, into the tropical NE Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 14N southward from 70W westward.

The gradient between a weak high pressure ridge near the Bahamas
and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will continue to support
moderate trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean,
with gentle winds in the NW basin through Mon. By Tue, building
high pressure will cause the gradient to gradually tighten,
freshening the winds across the basin through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is as much as 250 nm to the east of the Atlantic
Ocean-to-Florida-to-Gulf of Mexico cold front, in the Atlantic
Ocean that is to the east of Florida, and parts of the NW Bahamas,
and through the Straits of Florida. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 70W westward.

A surface trough is along 65W/68W from the Mona Passage to 33N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 200 nm to 660 nm to the east of the surface trough from 20N
northward. Isolated moderate is within 240 nm to the west of the
surface trough.

A cold front passes through 31N25W to 29N30W 28N33W 29N37W.
A dissipating stationary front passes through 31N19W to 20N30W.
A surface trough curves through an area of gentle wind speeds,
along 18W/19W from 25N to 29N. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate covers the areas that
are from 24N northward from 20W eastward. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W eastward.

Strong NE winds are: from 14N to 16N between 33W and 38W, from
17N to 25N between 43W and 50W, and from 06N to 13N between 45W
and 50W. Mostly fresh to isolated strong SE winds are from 23N
northward between 53W and 61W. Fresh winds are elsewhere from 64W
eastward, except for the part that is from 21N northward from 25W
eastward with gentle wind speeds there. Moderate winds are from
the Hispaniola to the SE Bahamas between 60W and the Windward
Passage. Gentle wind speeds are from 64W westward. The sea
heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet to the north of the line
22N18W 05N44W 08N60W, and from 60W eastward. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

A cold front has entered the NE Florida waters brining fresh NW
winds in its wake. This front will gradually progress SE, reaching
from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas late Sun before gradually
dissipating through Mon. The gradient between a surface trough
along 65W and subtropical high pressure in the central Atlantic
will support moderate to fresh E-SE winds east of 65W through Mon.
A high pressure ridge will return by Tue, decreasing winds
through the basin before the next front moves off Florida on Wed.

$$
mt/df/ss
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