[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches from the
central Louisiana coast to northern Mexico. Strong N winds follow
the front with frequent gusts to gale force expected off the
South Texas coast. These gusts will end this afternoon. The cold
front will extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near
Veracruz this evening, and then from southwest Florida to central
Bay of Campeche by Sun evening. Sustained gale force winds will
begin across the upper Mexican waters this morning and shift
southward to offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico this afternoon before
diminishing by this evening. Conditions across the Gulf are
expected to improve by Sun night. Please read the latest the High
Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 70W,
and south of 20N, moving west at around 5 kt. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active off the coast of Venezuela east of
Caracas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 05N37W to
05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between
23W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information the Gale
Warning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the cold front
in the NW Gulf. Outside of the front, a 1014 mb high pressure
over the central Gulf is supporting gentle winds and slight seas
over most of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will extend from the western
Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz this evening, and then from
southwest Florida to central Bay of Campeche by Sun evening.
Strong N winds and moderate to high seas will follow the front
through Sun. Brief gale conditions will begin across the upper
Mexican waters this morning and shift southward to offshore of
Cabo Rojo, Mexico this afternoon before diminishing by this
evening. Conditions across the Gulf are expected to improve by Sun
night before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf Mon
night. This next front is expected to reach from the Florida Big
Bend to the central Bay of Campeche Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is resulting in
light to gentle winds over the western basin and moderate to
fresh trade winds across the eastern basin. Seas are generally
1-3 ft west of 75W with 3-5 ft east of 75W, along with northerly
swell that still propagates through the Mona and Anegada
Passages. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the central
Caribbean northward toward Cuba between 71W and 80W.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will sink
southeastward and gradually build across the basin today. A
surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean tonight
through Mon morning. This will briefly weaken the trade wind flow
across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the
trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the
trade winds across the entire basin through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the Florida
coast and across the Bahamas. Light to gentle winds are noted in
this area with moderate to locally fresh winds off the NE Florida
coast in addition to the southern Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos. Seas are to 6 ft. In the central Atlantic, a trough
extends from 22N65W to 29N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along and east of this feature from 21N to 29N between 49W
and 62W. East of the Lesser Antilles, another trough extends from
10N56W to 19N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near this
feature from 14N to 20N between 49W and 59W.

In the central and eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from
31N22W to 24N33W to 24N44W, where it becomes stationary and
continues to 27N57W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
persist north of this boundary. Northerly swell in excess of 8 ft
is evident N of 16N between 22W and 67W. Moderate easterly winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are evident east of 35W,
south of the front.

For the forecast west of 55W, the strong winds along the cold
front will diminish today with seas gradually subsiding through
early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the
coast of northeast Florida early Sun with moderate to locally
fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The front will weaken as
it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon
night. The next front will likely move off the NE Florida coast by
mid-week.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net