[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL172022
413 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**Tropical storm force wind gusts overspreading the Florida Big Bend
and portions of Southwest Georgia**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been cancelled for Coastal Franklin

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and
      Coastal Wakulla
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baker, Ben Hill,
      Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun, Clay, Coastal Franklin, Colquitt,
      Cook, Decatur, Dougherty, Early, Gadsden, Grady, Inland Dixie,
      Inland Franklin, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Inland
      Wakulla, Irwin, Lafayette, Lanier, Lee, Leon, Liberty, Lowndes,
      Madison, Miller, Mitchell, Quitman, Randolph, Seminole,
      Terrell, Thomas, Tift, Turner, and Worth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 80 miles southeast of St Marks
    - 29.4N 83.2W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

** CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ENTERS
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND **

The center of Tropical Storm Nicole is now entering the Southeast
Florida Big Bend, and will continue moving northwest along the Nature
Coast, then into southwest Georgia tonight as it begins a northward
turn. Nicole is expected to exit southwest Georgia Friday morning.

Tropical storm force winds are ongoing in portions of Southwest
Georgia, the Southeast Florida Big Bend, and the adjacent coastal
waters. Tropical storm force winds will continue spreading northwest
over the remainder of the Florida Big Bend and Southwest Georgia
through this evening, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

Dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the Apalachee Bay
shoreline. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from the
Ochlockonee River to the mouth of the Suwannee River, where normally
dry land near the shore could experience 2 to 4 feet of inundation.
The Storm Surge Watch from Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River has
been cancelled. In areas where water has receded below normal due to
offshore winds, do not venture out onto the exposed beach, as the
water will rise steadily once the wind becomes onshore.

Rainfall amounts are approaching one inch near the Suwanee Valley in
some of the heavier squalls associated with Nicole. Storm total
rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is forecast for all areas east of a line
from Dothan to Apalachicola. A lack of recent rainfall will allow the
ground to absorb some of the heavy rain, however, torrential rainfall
over a short period of time leading to isolated higher amounts could
cause isolated flash flooding.

Isolated tornadoes are possible east of the I-75 corridor in south
Georgia.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts from the Ochlockonee River to the mouth of the Suwannee
River. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts along the shore of Franklin County.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts east of a line from Dothan to Apalachicola.
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Florida Panhandle and portions of
Southeastern Alabama.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts east
of the I-75 corridor of Southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across the eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia west of I-75, little
to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear
to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 10 PM ET, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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