[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL172022
1025 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**TROPICAL STORM NICOLE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA MOVING FURTHER FROM THE IMMEDIATE AREA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been
      cancelled for Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, and Coastal
      Saint Lucie
    - The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for Inland Indian
      River, Inland Martin, Inland Saint Lucie, and Okeechobee

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Volusia, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and
      Southern Brevard Barrier Islands
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Northern
      Brevard, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland
      Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Lake,
      Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 100 miles west-southwest of Daytona Beach FL or about 50 miles
      west of Orlando FL
    - 28.2N 82.2W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 10 AM, the broad center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located
about 30 miles northeast of Tampa in west-central Florida. Nicole is
moving quickly west-northwest at 16 mph, and will emerge over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico late this morning.

As Nicole moves further from the immediate area, showers will diminish
in coverage across east central Florida. Despite Nicole tracking
further from the area, gusty winds capable of tossing loose debris
will remain a concern through the afternoon.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for most counties of east
central Florida, and a Wind Advisory is now in effect for the coastal
sections of Indian River, Saint Lucie and Martin counties.

A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect north of Sebastian Inlet for
3 to 5 feet of surge. A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for
Sebastian Inlet southward to Jupiter Inlet. Large breaking waves of
6 to 8 feet will continue along with numerous life-threatening rip
currents.

Winds and rough surf will combine with the ongoing high astronomical
tides to bring moderate beach erosion, around the next high tide,
which will next occur from 900 PM to 945 PM tonight.

Local breaching of dunes and inundation of immediate low lying coastal
areas is possible. Tidal flooding may also be enhanced around
Sebastian Inlet, Ponce Inlet and the Halifax River, and the
Intracoastal Waterway. Vulnerable coastal structures could be
compromised or collapse!

Coastal areas of Volusia County remain particularly vulnerable to
additional beach erosion, dune breaching, overwash and coastal
inundation. Damaged sea walls may be further compromised or destroyed!

Stay off the beaches! Battering, dangerous surf continues to create a
potentially life-threatening situation! Small craft operators should
stay in port until winds and seas subside late this week.

Strong northeast winds combined with the heavy rainfall have pushed
the Saint Johns River back up into Major Flood Stage at Astor, leading
to a crest of 4.52 feet earlier this morning. Levels continue to rise
through Moderate Flood Stage at Deland, but will level off around
5.1 feet. At Lake Harney and Sanford, leveled have crossed into
Moderate Flood Stage as well this morning, and will continue a very
gradual rise through the weekend.River Flood Warnings remain in effect
for all of these forecast points.

Smaller rivers and creeks, such as the Little Wekiva River and Shingle
Creek are rising from the additional heavy rain, leading to an
increased threat for flooding. The Little Wekiva River near Altamonte
Springs has reached a crest of 28.43 feet this morning, and will
steadily decline with only slight rises possible with any additional
rainfall this afternoon. Levels will fall below Action Stage by the
afternoon.

Continue to remain well sheltered from the dangers posed by Nicole.
Avoid any travel unless absolutely necessary. Follow recommendations
of local officials, and obey any local curfews.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are still unfolding across
east central Florida. Remain well away from life-threatening
surge having locally significant impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads remain
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Potential impacts from the main surge event continue
across east Central Florida. Remain well away from locally
hazardous surge having impacts.

Elsewhere across East Central Florida, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event continue across
East Central Florida. Remain well sheltered from hazardous wind
having possible limited impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain continue across
low-lying areas. Remain well guarded against locally
hazardous flood waters having limited
impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few road closures.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.

Elsewhere across East Central Florida, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Assess the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders. Secure loose items and pets in the car, and avoid
distracted driving.

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 5 PM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

JP
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