[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL172022
452 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**TROPICAL STORM NICOLE MOVING INLAND AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR VERO
BEACH AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued and the Hurricane
      Warning has been cancelled for Coastal Indian River, Coastal
      Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Volusia, Inland Indian
      River, Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint
      Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Mainland Northern Brevard,
      Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands,
      and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie,
      Coastal Volusia, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern
      Brevard Barrier Islands
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Indian River,
      Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie,
      Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia, Mainland Northern
      Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern Lake, Okeechobee,
      Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 60 miles southeast of Orlando FL or about 20 miles
      west-northwest of Vero Beach FL
    - 27.8N 80.7W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 400 AM, the large center of Tropical Storm Nicole was moving
inland after making landfall along the Florida east coast near Vero
Beach as a category one hurricane. Nicole will continue moving west-
northwest across the interior, passing near or a little south of
greater Orlando late this morning, and into the northwest peninsula by
late afternoon.

Rain and squall bands will continue to rotate around the large
circulation of Nicole. Tropical Storm conditions, with gusts at or
near Hurricane Force in squalls, will spread inland, mainly from
Osceola County northward, while continuing over the coastal counties
of Indian River, Brevard and Volusia.

There will be a 30 to 60 minute lull in the dangerous winds and heavy
rain beneath the large center of Nicole as it tracks inland, however,
dangerous winds, especially in heavier squalls, will quickly return on
its back side. Do not venture outside. Remain in your safe shelter
until winds and squalls subside later today!

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all of east central
Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters out to 60 nautical miles.
A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from Flagler Beach to Jupiter
Inlet for 3 to 5 feet of surge.

Large breaking waves exceeding 10 feet will continue, along with
numerous life-threatening rip currents. Strong winds and high surf
will combine with the ongoing high astronomical tides to bring
significant water runup and major beach erosion, around the times of
the next high tide cycles, which will occur from 845 to 930 AM this
morning and 900 to 945 PM tonight. Additional overwash or breaching of
dunes and inundation of immediate low lying coastal areas is expected.
Tidal flooding may also be enhanced around Sebastian Inlet, Ponce Inlet
and the Halifax River, and the Intracoastal Waterway. Vulnerable
coastal structures could be compromised or fully collapse!

Coastal areas of Volusia County which suffered serious damage from
Hurricane Ian remain particularly vulnerable to additional beach
erosion, dune breaching, overwash and coastal inundation. Damaged sea
walls may be further compromised or destroyed!

Stay off the beaches! Battering, dangerous surf continues to create a
potentially life-threatening situation! Small craft operators should
stay in port until winds and seas subside by late week.

Heavy rain bands will produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches near and north of the center of Nicole. Local amounts up to 5
inches will be possible, before the rain tapers off later today.
the heavy rainfall will produce additional urban and poor drainage
flooding, especially where the water table remains high.

Strong northeast winds combined with the heavy rainfall have pushed
the Saint Johns River back up into Major Flood Stage at Astor, and
Moderate Flood Stage at Deland. The river is forecast to rise back
into Moderate Flood Stage at Geneva this weekend, and will approach
Moderate Flood Stage at Sanford later this week. River Flood Warnings
remain in effect for all of these forecast points.

Smaller rivers and creeks, such as the Little Wekiva River and Shingle
Creek are rising from the additional heavy rain, leading to an
increased threat for flooding. The Little Wekiva River near Altamonte
Springs is forecast to crest at 28.2 feet around mid day, which is
Action Stage, before falling back below Action Stage this evening.
A Flood Watch continues for all of east central Florida through this
afternoon.

The threat for a few tornadoes may develop this morning from Brevard
and Osceola Counties northward as the center of Nicole moves inland
across central Florida.

Continue to remain well sheltered from the dangers posed by Nicole.
Avoid any travel unless absolutely necessary. Follow recommendations
of local officials, and obey any local curfews.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
East Central Florida. Remain well sheltered from dangerous wind having
additional significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:

    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding from
Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Remain well away from life-threatening
surge having additional significant impacts. If realized, these
impacts include:

    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding, mainly
from Brevard and Osceola Counties northward. Remain well guarded
against dangerous flood waters having additional significant impacts.
If realized, these impacts include:

    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding from the
Lake Okeechobee region across the Treasure Coast.  Remain well guarded
against locally hazardous flood waters having possible limited impacts.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes may still unfold from Osceola and
Brevard Counties northward. Remain well braced against a tornado event
having possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:

    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across East Central Florida, little to no impact is
anticipated.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear
to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in
case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-powered radio, charged
cell phone and flashlight handy.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and check-
ins.

Do not venture outside while in the center of this tropical storm, as
any improvement in weather will only be temporary. Once the center
passes, conditions will become life threatening as winds immediately
return to dangerous speeds, so remain safely sheltered from the storm.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org


NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi
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