[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL172022
1027 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**HURRICANE NICOLE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
OVERNIGHT**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie,
      Coastal Volusia, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern
      Brevard Barrier Islands
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Indian River,
      Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie,
      Inland Southern Brevard, Mainland Northern Brevard, and
      Mainland Southern Brevard
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 90 miles east-southeast of Fort Pierce FL
    - 27.0N 78.9W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The center of the large eye of Hurricane Nicole is now northwest of
Grand Bahama Island, about 90 miles east-southeast of Fort Pierce late
this evening. Nicole is moving west-northwest toward landfall along the
Treasure Coast, likely in Saint Lucie or Indian River County, around
3 AM.

Nicole is a very large storm, with an eye 40 miles across. As such,
weather conditions which are already dangerous, will worsen as Nicole
approaches, and then makes landfall. Tropical Storm force winds will
spread from the coastal counties across the interior counties of east
central Florida through the overnight hours. Gusts to hurricane force
will become more frequent along the coast, especially along the Space
and Treasure Coasts, near and just north of where the the large eye of
Nicole makes landfall. Increasing coverage of inland squalls will also
bring gusts to hurricane force across the interior overnight.

It is important to emphasize this: Given Nicole's very large eye,
there will be a lull in the dangerous winds, gusts and heavy rain as
the eye moves over your location. This lull may last as long as 30 to
60 minutes. Don't be fooled by this, since dangerous winds and heavy
squalls will quickly return on the back side of the eye! Don't venture
outside overnight! Remain in your safe shelter until conditions ease
tomorrow!

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian
River, Brevard, and coastal Volusia Counties, including the adjacent
Atlantic waters. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all
interior counties of east central Florida as well as inland Volusia
County.

A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for the entire east central
Florida coast, for 3 to 5 feet of surge above ground level. Large
breaking waves exceeding 10 feet and numerous life-threatening rip
currents continue. Strong winds and high surf will combine with
ongoing high astronomical tides to bring significant storm surge and
major beach erosion, especially around the times of the next high tide
cycles, which will occur from 845 to 930 AM Thursday morning and
900 to 945 PM Thursday evening.

Additional overwash and breaching of dunes, and inundation of
immediate low lying coastal areas is expected around the time and
location of landfall and during the Thursday morning high tide. This
includes tidal flooding along the Intracoastal Waterway and St. Lucie
River Inlet in low areas. Vulnerable coastal structures may be
compromised or fully collapse!

Coastal areas of Volusia County which suffered serious damage from
Hurricane Ian remain particularly vulnerable to additional beach
erosion, dune breaching, overwash and coastal inundation. Damaged sea
walls may be further compromised or destroyed!

Stay off the beaches! Battering, dangerous surf continues to create a
potentially life-threatening situation! Small craft operators should
stay in port until winds and seas subside later this week!

Increasing rain bands and areas of heavy rain are forecast to produce
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts up to 8 inches
possible tonight into Thursday. Urban and poor drainage flooding is
very likely, especially where the water table remains high.

Strong northeast winds are causing rises along the Saint Johns River,
which may worsen with the addition of heavy rainfall tonight into
early Thursday. River Flood Warnings remain in effect, and some areas
along the Saint Johns River which are currently in flood may reach
Major Flood Stage again, especially at Astor.

Smaller rivers and creeks are also expected to rise with the
additional heavy rain tonight, with the threat for flooding increasing
later this evening and continuing into Thursday morning. A Flood Watch
is in effect for all of east central Florida through Thursday
afternoon.

A threat for tornadoes will develop and increase overnight into early
Thursday as the center of Nicole moves inland across the Florida
peninsula. Tornado Watches are likely forthcoming due to this threat.

Take this storm seriously! Remain indoors in a sturdy structure
overnight. Dangerous conditions along the coast will spread inland.
There will likely be flooding of some roads, and other urban and low
lying areas, including river and creek basins. Follow the
recommendations of local officials and obey any local curfews.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across Brevard, Indian River, coastal Volusia, Saint Lucie
and Martin Counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee, and
inland Volusia Counties.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across along the east central Florida coast from Flagler
Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Preparations along the coast should have been completed. Any remaining
last minute inland preparations need to be rushed to completion NOW in
accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location
before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org


NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi
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