[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Nov 9 21:20:23 CST 2022
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Hurricane Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL AL172022
1020 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022
This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia
**NICOLE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Brantley, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Ware,
Pierce, Southern Ware, Wayne, and Western Charlton
- A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Appling, Atkinson,
Bacon, Coffee, and Jeff Davis
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal
Glynn, Coastal Nassau, Coastal St. Johns, Eastern Clay, Eastern
Putnam, Inland St. Johns, South Central Duval, and Trout River
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Appling, Atkinson,
Bacon, Baker, Bradford, Brantley, Central Marion, Clinch,
Coffee, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Marion, Echols, Gilchrist,
Hamilton, Inland Camden, Inland Flagler, Inland Glynn, Inland
Nassau, Jeff Davis, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Columbia,
Northern Ware, Pierce, Southern Columbia, Southern Ware,
Suwannee, Union, Wayne, Western Alachua, Western Charlton,
Western Clay, Western Duval, Western Marion, and Western Putnam
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 280 miles south-southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 250
miles southeast of Ocala FL
- 27.0N 78.9W
- Storm Intensity 75 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 13 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Hurricane Nicole will track west from the northern Bahamas
through the overnight hours. Some further intensification is possible
as Nicole nears landfall along the southeast Florida Atlantic coast
later tonight. Nicole is expected to track northwest across central
Florida Thursday and then across north Florida near the Gulf Coast
of Florida Thursday night. A more north to northeastward track is
expected into Friday as the storm tracks across southern Georgia.
Nicole will bring life-threatening storm surge inundation along
the local Atlantic Coast and within the St. Johns River basin tonight
through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts increase along the
local Atlantic coast overnight, and then increase across inland
northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia late tonight through
Thursday. The tornado threat will increase during the pre-dawn
hours Thursday morning and further increases through midday Thursday
up the local Atlantic coast, extending inland toward the Highway 301
corridor. Bands of heavy rainfall will bring the highest flooding
rainfall threat to coastal northeast Florida. Extremely dangerous
coastal hazards including destructive surf and frequent rip currents
will continue today through Friday.
A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for all of the area. There
is a localized flash flood risk Thursday and Friday, mainly impacting
the northeast Florida coast and counties near the St Johns River basin.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal northeast Florida, coastal southeast Georgia,
Intracoastal Waterways, and the St. Johns River Basin. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.
* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across portions of Marion, Flagler, and Putnam Counties. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across southeast Georgia and the rest of northeast Florida.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across coastal areas extending inland toward the Highway 301
corridor. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across areas west of Highway 301.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.
For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance
with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before
the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.
If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.
Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!
If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 5AM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
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