[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 100040
HLSMLB
FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-100845-

Hurricane Nicole Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL172022
740 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**NICOLE HAS BECOME A HURRICANE, EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie,
      Coastal Volusia, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern
      Brevard Barrier Islands
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Indian River,
      Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie,
      Inland Southern Brevard, Mainland Northern Brevard, and
      Mainland Southern Brevard
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 110 miles east-southeast of Stuart FL
    - 26.6N 78.5W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement West or 280 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Nicole near Grand Bahama Island, is currently about
110 miles east-southeast of Stuart early this evening. Nicole will turn
west-northwestward later this evening and is forecast to make landfall
near the Martin or Saint Lucie county coast shortly after midnight tonight.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian
River, Brevard, and coastal Volusia Counties, including the adjacent
Atlantic waters. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all
interior counties of east central Florida as well as inland Volusia
County.

Due to the large area of strong winds extending well to the north and
northwest of Nicole's center, weather and ocean conditions will
continue to steadily deteriorate tonight as Nicole approaches the east
coast.

Tropical Storm force winds will overspread all of east central Florida
tonight with gusts up to hurricane force along the coast, especially
along the Treasure Coast and near and just to the north of where the
center of Nicole makes landfall. Increasing coverage of squalls across
inland areas will also bring some gusts to hurricane force across the
interior overnight.

A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for the entire east central
Florida coast, for the potential of 3 to 5 feet of surge above ground
level. Large breaking waves will exceed 10 feet along with numerous
life-threatening rip currents. Strong winds and high surf will combine
with ongoing high astronomical tides to bring significant storm surge
and major beach erosion, especially around the times of the next
several high tide cycles, which will occur from 815 to 900 PM this
evening, 845 to 930 AM Thursday morning and 900 to 945 PM Thursday
evening. There is the potential for this evening high tide and Thursday
mornings high tide to allow for overwash of dunes, inundation of
immediate low lying coastal areas and the potential for vulnerable
coastal structures to be compromised.

Coastal areas of Volusia County which suffered serious damage from
Hurricane Ian remain particularly vulnerable to additional beach
erosion and inundation from coastal flooding! Some coastal structures
in areas of weakened dunes or damaged seawalls may be compromised.
Additional significant surge is expected tonight along the Treasure
Coast closer to where Nicole makes landfall, including flooding along
the intracoastal and Saint Lucie River Inlet in low areas.

Stay out of the battering and dangerous surf and off the beaches!
Small craft operators should stay in port until winds and seas subside
later this week.

Increasing rain bands and areas of heavy rain are forecast to produce
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches
possible tonight into Thursday. Urban and poor drainage flooding is
very likely, especially where the water table remains high.

Strong northeast winds are causing rises along the Saint Johns River,
which may worsen with the addition of heavy rainfall tonight into early
Thursday. River Flood Warnings remain in effect, and some areas along
the Saint Johns River which are currently in flood may reach Major
Flood Stage again, especially at Astor.

Smaller rivers and creeks are also expected to rise with the additional
heavy rain tonight, with the threat for flooding increasing later this
evening and continuing into Thursday morning. A Flood Watch is in
effect for all of east central Florida through Thursday afternoon.

A threat for tornadoes will develop during the late evening, and then
increase overnight into early Thursday as the center of Nicole moves
inland across the Florida peninsula.

Take this storm seriously! Your hurricane supply kit should already be
fully stocked. It is safest to remain indoors in a sturdy structure
tonight. Travel will become dangerous as wind substantially increases.
There will be the potential for flooding on roadways, as well as life-
threatening storm surge along the Atlantic coast. Follow the
recommendations of local officials and obey any local curfews.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across Brevard, Indian River, coastal Volusia, Saint Lucie
and Martin Counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee, and
inland Volusia Counties.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across along the east central Florida coast from Flagler
Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Any remaining last minute preparations need to be rushed to
completion NOW in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are
in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible
flooding.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 11 PM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net