[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091625
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 26.5N 76.7W at 09/1500 UTC
or 20 nm E of Great Abaco Island moving WSW at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate convection is
observed within 60 nm of the storm's center with outer rain bands
extending over 300 nm north of the center. Nicole is an enormous
storm with tropical storm force winds extending 400 nm in the NW
quadrant and 360 nm in the NE quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater
extend over 600 nm in the NE quadrant and 390 nm in the NW
quadrant. A recent altimeter pass found peak seas of 37 ft seas NE
of the Bahamas. Nicole will bring high-end tropical storm or low-
end hurricane conditions to the NW Bahamas today. By tonight, a
small area of hurricane force winds are expected to impact the
Florida coast, between Boca Raton and the Flagler/Volusia County
Line, embedded in a very large area of tropical storm impacts
from Hallandale Beach, FL to South Santee River, SC. A dangerous
storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida
and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 60W, from 06N to
17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 09N to 15N, between 55W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 06N27W to
11N42W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by a surface
trough. The ITCZ resumes west of the trough from 11N50W to 12N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 08N, between
21W and 29W and from 09N to 15N, between 36W and 44W. Isolated
moderate convection is observed between these two areas, from 04N
to 11N, between 29W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Buoys are reporting fresh to strong NE winds and 8-10 ft seas in
the eastern Gulf as Tropical Storm Nicole approaches. Conditions
gradually improve further west with moderate easterly winds and
4-6 ft seas in the western Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Nicole near 26.5N 76.7W 986 mb at 10
AM EST moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75
kt. Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.7N 78.6W this
evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 27.6N
81.3W Thu morning, 29.5N 83.5W along the Florida Big Bend
coastline Thu evening, move inland again and weaken to a tropical
depression near 32.4N 83.3W Fri morning. Nicole will bring
tropical storm force winds to the far northeast Gulf tonight
through Thu night, and strong winds and rough seas elsewhere over
the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish through Fri.
Looking ahead, a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf Fri
night, stalling from west-central Florida to the southwest Gulf by
Sat night. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front over
the far western Gulf Sat and Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft continues to
support isolated showers and thunderstorms across the eastern
Caribbean. Tropical Storm Nicole is disrupting the normal pressure
gradient, leading to light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas across
the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will produce only
gentle to moderate winds across the area through the next several
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters
west of 60W.

West of 70W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by Tropical
Storm Nicole, described in detail in the Special Features Section
above. A surface trough stretches from 31N61W to 28N70W. NE winds
are near gale force north of this boundary with 10-16 ft seas.
South of the boundary and east of 70W, winds are mainly gentle
with 6-8 ft seas. A surface ridge extending from a 1024 mb high
pressure south of the Azores dominates the remainder of the basin.
In the central Atlantic, moderate to fresh SW winds are observed
north of 29N, with gentle winds further South. In the eastern
Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds are observed along the coast
of Western Sahara. Seas are 6-8 ft throughout the central and
eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Nicole near 26.5N
76.7W 986 mb at 10 AM EST moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane
near 26.7N 78.6W this evening, move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 27.6N 81.3W Thu morning, 29.5N 83.5W along the
Florida Big Bend coastline Thu evening, move inland again and
weaken to a tropical depression near 32.4N 83.3W Fri morning.
Large seas from Nicole will diminish over the NW waters by Sat
morning. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of
northeast Florida Sat night or early Sun, then weaken as it moves
to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Sun
night.

$$
Flynn
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