[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL172022
1014 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022

This product covers South Florida

**NICOLE CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA,
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Warning, Storm Surge Watch, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Broward
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Inland Broward, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, and Metro
      Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Glades and Hendry
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Miami-Dade and
      Metro Miami-Dade

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 210 miles east of West Palm Beach FL or about 210 miles
      east of Fort Lauderdale FL
    - 26.5N 76.7W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement West or 265 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nicole is currently moving west to southwest near
the northwest Bahamas in the southwest Atlantic and is forecast to
gradually turn toward the west and then northwest towards the east
coast of Florida late today into tonight as a hurricane.

While the finer details of the track and intensity could fluctuate a
bit, the confidence in the potential impacts of this system are
increasing. Keeping in mind the magnitude of impacts may vary a bit
with any changes to Nicole's forecast, the main hazards of concern
are:

* Coastal Flooding/Surge - Higher than usual tides due to the recent
full moon and antecedent moderate northeasterly flow will become
further enhanced as Nicole moves towards the east coast of Florida.
Tidal gauges are forecast to climb into moderate to major flood stage
through tonight. The concern is greatest around high tide. High tide
this evening is between 830-930 PM along the east coast. Peak
inundation values of concern along the immediate coast are forecast to
range from 3 to 5 feet across northern Palm Beach, 2 to 4 feet south
to Hallandale Beach, and 1 to 3 feet across Miami-Dade. Large
breaking/life threatening waves are expected along the east coast with
the worst conditions expected along Palm Beach.

* Rainfall - The majority of the rainfall associated with the system
is forecast to fall today through Thursday morning. Waves of moderate
to heavy rain could cause localized flooding. The greatest risk for
flash flooding will be near the coast should bands of heavy rain fall
when tides are at their peak. Fairly widespread rain amounts of 2-4"
with localized amounts in excess of 6 inches are expected over the
area. The highest amounts are anticipated over Palm Beach county and
the Lake region.

* Wind - Based on the current forecast for Nicole, the reasonable
worst case scenario is for tropical storm force winds particularly
across the Palm Beach region and Broward county. Tropical storm force
winds are expected to arrive into the area this afternoon although
occasional strong winds will be possible in squalls today ahead of the
system. Hurricane force winds are a reasonable worse case scenario
mainly across portions of coastal and northeastern Palm Beach county.

* Tornadoes - A low-end tornado threat is currently forecast Wednesday
into Thursday as banding from the system moves ashore along the
Florida east coast. The greatest potential for tornadoes will be along
Palm Beach county and northward.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across the Palm Beach coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the inland Palm Beach region and Broward county.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the Palm Beach and Broward coasts. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Miami-Dade and Collier counties.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across the Palm Beach region, Broward county, and coastal
Miami-Dade. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the remainder of South Florida.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across northern portions of Palm Beach and Glades counties. Potential
impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 4 PM EST, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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