[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KTAE 090324
HLSTAE
FLZ018-019-028-029-034-115-118-127-128-134-091130-

Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL172022
1024 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

** TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING **

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Coastal Franklin

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Coastal Franklin
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and Coastal
      Wakulla
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Dixie, Inland
      Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Lafayette, and Madison

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 660 miles east-southeast of Indian Pass or about 640
      miles east-southeast of Apalachicola
    - 27.1N 74.8W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement West-southwest or 250 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------


Tropical Storm Nicole is moving west to southwest towards the
northwest Bahamas. Some gradual strengthening is forecast through
landfall and Nicole could become a hurricane by Wednesday morning.
Nicole is expected to make landfall late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning along the east coast of Florida. Nicole will then
cross the Peninsula and eventually begin to bring impacts to the tri-
state area Thursday. While tropical storm force winds will likely not
arrive until Thursday across the area, the large expanse of tropical
storm force winds of Nicole will still bring wind gusts to near
tropical storm force on Wednesday.

Tropical storm watches remain in effect for our northeast Gulf waters
east of Apalachicola, and along the coastline. Tropical storm watches
also remain in effect for inland counties in the SE Big Bend to
include Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie counties.

The main concerns with Nicole will be the windy conditions, especially
on Thursday and Thursday night when tropical storm force winds will
most likely arrive. Additionally, heavy rainfall will be a concern,
especially across the southeast Florida Big Bend. A lack of recent
rainfall will allow us to absorb some of the heavy rain, high rainfall
rates with this system will allow the potential for localized flash
flooding.

While storm surge concerns remain low due to the current forecast
track of Nicole, future westward shifts in the track could allow for a
period of onshore flow and the potential for storm surge across the
eastern and northern portions of the Apalachee Bay. Currently Storm
Surge Watches have been expanded to include all of Apalachee Bay from
Indian Pass to the mouth of the Suwanee river. This is for the
possibility of 2-4ft of storm surge inundation.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Florida eastern Big Bend and adjacent counties of southern
Georgia. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the western Florida Big Bend northward through southwest
Georgia.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the Nature Coast. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts west of the Nature Coast towards Indian Pass.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the eastern Florida Big Bend northward across the I-75
corridor of southern Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the western Florida Big Bend northward to the
Flint River Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 2 AM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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