[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 27.5N 73.7W at 08/2100 UTC
or 250 nm NE of the northwestern Bahamas moving W at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 240 nm N semicircle and 90 nm S
semicircle. Peak seas are estimated at 25 ft. The 12 ft seas
extend outward up to 480 nm N semicircle and 300 nm S semicircle.
The tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 330 nm NW
quadrant and 240 nm E semicircle. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas tonight,
and approach the east coast of Florida Wed night or early Thu.
Nicole's center is then expected to move across central and
northern Florida into southern Georgia Thu and Thu night.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Nicole is
forecast to become a hurricane Wed when it is near the
northwestern Bahamas, and remain a hurricane when it approaches
the east coast of Florida. Dangerous storm surge, very rough surf
and deadly rip currents are expected as the storm approaches
Florida. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 58W, from 17N
southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm either side of
the wave axis from 09N to 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 05N26W to 07N37W to
09N53W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted within
420 nm either side of the ITCZ and monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Currently, fresh NE winds prevail across the eastern and central
Gulf with seas 5 to 8 ft. Across the far W and SW Gulf, winds are
moderate with 3-6 ft seas.

Tropical Storm Nicole is forecast to make landfall in Florida and
then reach Florida's Gulf Coast before gradually recurving
northward. Nicole is forecast to produce tropical storm force
winds over the NE Gulf of Mexico Wed night through Thu evening,
mainly north of 27N and east of 85W. Strong winds up to 25 kt
could reach as far west as 88W in the Gulf during this time. Seas
over the eastern Gulf will build to 9 to 13 ft. Winds and seas
will subside Fri into Fri evening as Nicole pulls farther away
from the area and up the U.S. eastern seaboard.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ample moisture prevails over the eastern Caribbean as noted on
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms under mostly cloudy skies prevail east of 72W. Over
the NW Caribbean, a surface trough extends from the E tip of
Jamaica to Belize. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
noted within 120 nm of the trough, mainly west of 80W.

Moderate N to NE winds prevail over the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft
seas, highest over the Yucatan Channel. Moderate trades are over
the far E Caribbean with 3-4 ft seas. In between, gentle winds
are found over the central Caribbean, except for moderate SW to W
winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail over the
central Caribbean.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds with slight to
moderate seas will persist through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Currently, east of 60W, there aren't any significant features
that are producing any significant convection or strong winds,
and seas are averaging 6 to 7 ft across the area. The exception is
north of 29N and east of 37W, where seas are 8 to 9 ft due to a
cold front that extends from 31N23W to 30N29W.

The pressure gradient between TS Nicole and strong high pressure
to the north of the area is bringing near gale-force winds off
most of the Florida coast. Buoy 41010 near 28.9N 78.5W is
reporting NNE winds 31 kt gusting to 41 kt with 17 ft seas. Buoy
41009, about 20 nm east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, is reporting
NE winds 31 kt gusting to 37 kt with 15 ft seas. Seas of 12 ft or
greater are currently occurring north of 25.5N and west of 67W to
the coast of Florida. When Nicole makes landfall in Florida late
Wed night, seas 12 ft or greater will be occurring north of a
line from 25N80W to 31N56W. Seas will finally subside below 12 ft
Fri evening.

Tropical Storm Nicole is near 27.5N 73.7W 990 mb at 4 PM EST
moving W at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to
65 kt. Nicole will move to 27.0N 75.2W Wed morning, strengthen to
a hurricane near 26.7N 77.2W Wed afternoon, then be near 27.2N
79.9W early Thu morning. Nicole will move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 28.6N 82.4W Thu afternoon, be near 31.2N 83.4W
Fri morning, and 34.7N 81.9W Fri afternoon. Nicole will become
extratropical as it moves through New England Sat afternoon.

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters
west of 60W.

$$
Hagen
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