[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL172022
438 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**TROPICAL STORM NICOLE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
PRIOR TO REACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie,
      Coastal Volusia, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern
      Brevard Barrier Islands
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Indian River,
      Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie,
      Inland Southern Brevard, Mainland Northern Brevard, and
      Mainland Southern Brevard
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 420 miles east of Cape Canaveral FL or about 410 miles
      east of Vero Beach FL
    - 27.5N 73.7W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement West or 260 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nicole, currently around 410 miles east of Vero
Beach, is moving westward around 10 mph. Nicole is forecast to turn
west-southwest through tonight, as it moves toward the northwest
Bahamas through Wednesday. Nicole is then forecast to approach the
Florida east coast at or near Hurricane strength Wednesday night,
before making landfall by late Wednesday night somewhere along the
Space or Treasure Coast.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for coastal Volusia County, as
well as all of Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie and Martin Counties,
including the adjacent Atlantic waters. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for all interior counties of east central Florida and inland
Volusia County.

Due to the large area of strong winds extending well to the north and
northwest of Nicole's center, weather and ocean conditions will
continue to steadily deteriorate tonight through Wednesday. Northeast
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts above Tropical Storm
Force in increasing coverage of squalls through this evening.

As the center of Nicole nears the east coast of Florida late
Wednesday, tropical storm force winds will begin to overspread the
region, beginning along the Treasure Coast and spreading north and
inland through Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall, with the latest forecast
showing the highest likelihood along the Space or Treasure Coast.

A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for the entire east central
Florida coast, for the potential of 3 to 5 feet of surge above ground
level. Surge values could be a little higher, locally up to 6 feet
near to north of the Cape and along the Volusia County coast.

Large breaking waves will begin to exceed 10 feet beginning late
tonight. Numerous life-threatening rip currents will continue. The
strong winds and high surf will combine with ongoing high astronomical
tides to bring significant storm surge and major beach erosion around
the times of the next several high tide cycles tonight through
Thursday. Coastal areas of Volusia County which suffered serious
damage from Hurricane Ian remain particularly vulnerable to additional
beach erosion and inundation from coastal flooding!

It is highly recommended to stay off the beach and do not enter the
water under any circumstance! Small craft operators should stay in
port until conditions start to improve late this week or the weekend.

Increasing coverage of showers and squalls is also expected from this
storm starting this afternoon. Squalls will produce wind gusts in
excess of tropical storm force, especially offshore and over coastal
counties. Bands of heavy showers will increase in frequency and
coverage, resulting in rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches from eastern
Osceola and Brevard Counties northward across the Saint Johns River
Basin. Local totals up to 8 inches are possible. Farther inland, 2 to
4 inches are expected,with locally higher amounts. Urban and poor
drainage flooding is increasingly likely, especially where the water
table remains high. A Flood Watch has been issued for all of east
central Florida beginning Wednesday morning continuing through
Thursday afternoon.

The combination of heavy rainfall and strong northeast winds could
also cause additional flooding and standing water concerns over the
Saint Johns River Basin, where River Flood Warnings remain in effect.
Some areas along the Saint Johns River which are currently in flood
may reach Major Flood Stage inundating additional areas. Smaller
rivers and creeks are also expected to rise with additional heavy
rain, with flooding potentially developing Wednesday night into
Thursday.

A threat for tornadoes will develop late Wednesday into Wednesday
night as the center of the storm moves inland across the Florida
peninsula, and continue into Thursday.

Preparations for the significant impacts from Nicole should be
completed by tonight!!

Take this seriously and prepare for this storm! Make sure your
hurricane supply kit is stocked, and you have a plan in place,
especially if you live along the coast or in an area that is either
prone to flooding or has recently experienced flooding. Follow
recommendations from local officials regarding any evacuations orders
for your area.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across Brevard, Indian River, coastal Volusia, Saint Lucie
and Martin Counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee, and
inland Volusia Counties.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts along the east central Florida coast from Flagler Beach
to Jupiter Inlet. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
visitors.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 11 PM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Weitlich
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