[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwest Atlantic:  Subtropical Storm Nicole is centered near
26.3N 69.6W at 07/1500 UTC or 430 nm E of the Northwestern
Bahamas, and moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Seas are peaking at 15 to 18 ft. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from the southeast Bahamas northward to 31N between 66W
and 72W. Nicole is expected to slow down later today, then turn
toward the west or west-southwest Tue. This will bring Nicole to
the northwest Bahamas Tue, and Florida east coast by Wed. A
gradual strengthening trend is forecast and Nicole might become a
hurricane on Wed near the northwest Bahamas.

Due to its large wind field, impacts created by Nicole will be
felt from the northwest Bahamas northward across Florida to the
Carolinas. These impacts include very rough seas, dangerous storm
surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A well-defined low pressure located
about 650 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force
winds, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
displaced to the east of the low's center due to strong upper-
level winds. These conditions are expected to remain unfavorable
for development through tonight, but upper-level winds could
briefly become more favorable on Tuesday, and a short-lived
tropical storm could still form as the system begins to move
northward and then northeastward. There is a medium chance for
this system to develop into a tropical cyclone. Please refer to
the High Seas Forecast issued by OPC at
www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 17N southward,
and moving westward around 10 knots. Scattered showers are noted
from 07N to 10N between 49W and 52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over the African continent. An
ITCZ stretches from near the southern Liberia coast to across
07N30W to 09N49W, then from 09N52W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted up to 180 nm along either
side of both ITCZ segments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, including the coast of Panama and
Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on Subtropical Storm
Nicole which will affect the eastern Gulf toward the weekend.

A surface trough is generating isolated thunderstorms at the
central Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
are found across the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE winds
and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten between high
pressure building southward over the area and Subtropical Storm
Nicole that will approach Florida from the Bahamas through mid
week. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building
seas over the eastern Gulf. Subtropical Storm Nicole will reach
the west coast of central Florida Thu morning. Nicole will change
little in intensity as it moves over Florida early Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent southerly winds toward Subtropical Storm Nicole east of
the central Bahamas are producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the northeastern basin, including Puerto Rico,
the Virgin and Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds are present across the eastern and
south-central basin, while northerly winds are seen at the
northwestern basin. Seas in these locations are 2 to 4 ft. Light
to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, large northerly swell will persist over the
Atlantic waters east of the northern Leewards Islands into Tue.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas
will persist into late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on Subtropical
Storm Nicole.

Convergent fresh to strong southerly winds east and southeast of
Nicole are producing scattered moderate convection north of 20N
between 59W and 65W. Seas range from 11 to 15 ft in this area. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional significant convection in the Atlantic Basin.

West of Nicole, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft
exist north of 25N between 70W and the Georgia-Florida coast. At
the central Atlantic, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to
E trades and seas at 7 to 12 ft in northerly swell are found
north of 09N between the African coast and 59W/Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle southerly winds with 4 to 7 ft in southerly swell
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Subtropical Storm Nicole will move
to 27.0N 70.5W this evening, then 27.7N 71.9W Tue morning. Nicole
will be near 27.6N 74.1W Tue evening, 26.9N 76.5W Wed morning,
26.6N 78.7W Wed evening, and 27.3N 81.2W Thu morning. Nicole will
change little in intensity as it moves over Florida early Fri.

$$

Chan
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