[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KJAX 071554
HLSJAX
FLZ020-021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-222-225-232-236-237-240-325-340-425-GAZ153-154-165-166-080000-

Subtropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL172022
1054 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**NICOLE REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS IT BEGINS TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued
      for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal
      Glynn, Coastal Nassau, and Coastal St. Johns
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Inland Flagler

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Glynn,
      Coastal Nassau, and Coastal St. Johns
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Flagler

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 770 miles east-southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 740
      miles east-southeast of Flagler Beach FL
    - 26.3N 69.6W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Subtropical Storm Nicole is expected to bring widespread impacts
with prolonged coastal flooding, possible tropical-storm-force
winds, locally heavy rainfall, rough surf and life-threatening rip
currents at area beaches. A tropical storm watch has now been
issued for the wind threat along the coastal areas, and includes Flagler
county as well. Additional watches may become necessary depending
on the exact track, and when the wind field of Nicole becomes
better defined.

Nicole is currently expected to reach Hurricane level strength as it
crosses through the Bahamas and on towards the southern Florida
peninsula. The continued track has Nicole crossing Florida and
reaching towards the panhandle Wednesday night through Friday
and then turning its path towards the northeast and crossing
northeast Florida and into the Carolinas early in the weekend.

Increasing onshore winds and already elevated tide levels will create
possible life-threatening storm surge for the coastal areas,
including inland portions of the Saint Johns River and the Intracoastal
Waterways. At least moderate coastal flood stage is likely for the
coastal areas. Localized flash flooding risk on Thursday and Friday,
mainly impacting coastal areas and along the St Johns River.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal northeast Florida and southeast GA, and inland to
downtown Jacksonville. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across portions of the Trout River, and south of the
Fuller Warren Bridge all the way down the St Johns River through
western Flagler and eastern Putnam counties.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across portions
of northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across eastern parts of northeast Florida, including
the St Johns River Basin. Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

There could be a localized threat from a tornado with this storm.
Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 5 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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