[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Subtropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL172022
1022 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

This product covers South Florida

**SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE THREATENING FLORIDA COAST MID WEEK**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been issued for
      Coastal Broward and Coastal Palm Beach
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Inland Broward, Inland
      Palm Beach, Metro Broward, and Metro Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Coastal Miami-Dade
      and Metro Miami-Dade

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Broward and Coastal Palm Beach
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Inland Broward, Inland Palm
      Beach, Metro Broward, and Metro Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Miami-Dade and
      Metro Miami-Dade

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 650 miles east of West Palm Beach FL or about 660 miles
      east of Miami FL
    - 26.3N 69.6W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Subtropical Storm Nicole is currently east of the Bahamas in the
southwest Atlantic and forecast to slowly move north/northwest over
the next day or so. Then, strengthening high pressure across the
eastern US around mid-week will force the system to turn
west/southwest towards the eastern Florida coast as it becomes a
hurricane.

While the finer details of the track and intensity could fluctuate a
bit, the potential impacts from this system are beginning to emerge.
Keeping in mind the magnitude of impacts may vary a bit with any
changes to Nicole's forecast, the main hazards of concern are:

* Coastal Flooding/Surge - Higher than usual tides due to the moon
phase and antecedent moderate northeasterly flow will become further
aggravated as Nicole moves towards the east coast of Florida. Tidal
gauges are forecast to climb into moderate to major flood stage during
periods of high tide Tuesday through Thursday with the peak on
Wednesday. Peak inundation values of concern along the immediate coast
are forecast to range from 3 to 5 feet across northern Palm Beach,
2 to 4 feet south to Hallandale Beach, and 1 to 3 feet across
Miami-Dade.

* Rainfall - The majority of the rainfall associated with the system
is forecast to fall Wednesday through Thursday. Waves of moderate to
heavy rain could cause localized flooding. The greatest risk for flash
flooding will be near the coast should bands of heavy rain fall when
tides are at their peak. Over the two day period, widespread average
rain amounts of 2-4" with localized amounts in excess of 6 inches are
the main concern across the southeast coast of Florida, and should be
highest from Palm Beach county northward.

* Wind - Based on the current forecast for Nicole, Tropical Storm
force winds could begin as early as Wednesday morning, across the
southeast coast of Florida. Along the immediate coast, hurricane force
winds are a reasonable worse case scenario mainly across portions of
coastal Palm Beach and Broward counties, and tropical storm force
winds elsewhere.

* Tornadoes - A low-end tornado threat is currently forecast Wednesday
into Thursday as banding from the system moves ashore along the
Florida east coast. The greatest potential for tornadoes will be along
the Palm Beach county northward.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across southeast Florida, especially Palm Beach and Broward counties.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the rest of South Florida.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal Palm Beach and Broward counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal Miami-Dade and Collier.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across southeast Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the rest of South Florida.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Palm Beach
county. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 5 PM EST, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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