[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic Low Pressure with Gale Warning...
An area of low pressure located more than 200 miles north of
Puerto Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Strong winds are noted north and east of this
system with gale force winds to the east of the low pressure. Seas
are up to 15 ft, with the 12 ft seas extending from 18N to 25N
between 60W and 66W. This system is forecast to move northward and
then northwestward into the southwestern Atlantic where
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form
in the next day or so. The system is then forecast to turn
westward or west- southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by
the middle part of this week where additional development is
possible.

Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf,
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this
week.  Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and in products from your local weather office.
This system is forecast to move northward or northwestward further
into the southwestern Atlantic today, then turn westward or west-
southwestward early this week. Environmental conditions appear
generally conducive for additional development and it is likely to
become a subtropical or tropical depression early this week.
Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal
flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach
erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the
Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern
Bahamas during the early to middle part of this week. This system
has a high chance of developing within 48 hours. Please refer to
the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

Central Subtropical Atlantic Low Pressure with Gale Warning...
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
east of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds and an area of
showers and thunderstorms displaced northeast of the center. If the
associated shower activity redevelops closer to the center, a
tropical storm could form over the next couple of days while the
system drifts slowly initially but then begins to move northeastward
over the central Atlantic. The system is then forecast to merge with
a strong cold front by the middle part of this week. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. This
system has a high chance of developing within 48 hours. Please
refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by OPC at
www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 17N southward,
and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 08N to 11N between 45W and 47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone
coast near 09N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to
07N34W to 09N45W and then W of a tropical wave near 09N48W to
14N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along
the ITCZ from 05N to 10N between 23W and 43W and from 07N to 12N
between 47W and 58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 10N between 10W and 23W.

The eastern end of East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms over Panama, northwestern
Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters S of 13N between 75W and
84W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent southerly winds southeast of the remnants of former
Tropical Depression Lisa are generating isolated thunderstorms at
the central Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge extends southwestward
from the southeast U.S. to north of Tampico, Mexico. This feature
is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across much of the
Gulf. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft across the western Gulf and Bay of
Campeche, and 1 to 3 ft for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient WILL tighten between high
pressure building southward over the area and broad low pressure
that will approach Florida from the Bahamas through mid week.
This pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon
through Thu over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface to mid-level trough runs northward from near the ABC
Islands to beyond the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are found across the east-central basin, especially
over the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh
with locally strong S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
present at the eastern and south-central basin. Gentle to moderate
monsoonal winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the southwestern
basin. Gentle NE to ENE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, favorable conditions aloft support the
development of broad low pressure well north of Puerto Rico. This
pattern has been supporting strong to near- gale force winds over
Atlantic waters east of the northern Leewards Islands along with
rough seas. The winds will diminish through tonight, however large
swell will persist in this area into Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through
the early and middle portions of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about gale warnings and
potential sub-tropical/tropical development in the Atlantic.

High pressure extends across the east coast of Florida. Due to the
influence of the low pres north of Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and
the Florida offshore waters are experiencing NE to E moderate to
fresh winds. Seas are reaching 8 ft off the Melbourne, FL coast
southward along the Bahamas. Scattered showers are also moving
across the area.

In the central Atlantic, light to gentle winds are noted under
surface high pres extending across this area. Seas range 5 to 6
ft. A surface trough extends from 32N36W to 30N39W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are near this feature N of 26N between
32W and 40W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are on the W side
of this feature with seas to 11 ft near 31N39W. In the eastern
Atlantic, high pres also extends across the northwest coast of
Africa to the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate NE winds prevail over
the Morocco and Western Sahara coast with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to
locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the eastern Atlantic
N of 08N and W of 20W. Seas range 8 to 11 ft in NW swell, N of
the Cabo Verde Islands and W of the Canary Islands from 22N to 31N
between 16W and 35W. South of 22N, seas range 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, large NE to E swell will prevail
across the entire area tonight. Broad low pressure is developing
north of Puerto Rico and east of the southern Bahamas. The low is
forecast to move northward and then northwestward toward the
northern Bahamas, where environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development. A subtropical or tropical storm is
likely to form in the next day or so. A tight pressure gradient
between the low and strong high pressure farther north will lead
to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the
low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with rough seas north of
the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas tonight.
Strong to gale force winds and very rough seas will impact waters
off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low
pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north
of the area.

$$
AReinhart
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