[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 060520
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have recently decreased in coverage in
association with a well-defined low pressure area located several
hundred miles east of Bermuda.  If the shower and thunderstorm
activity re-develops near the center, a short-lived tropical
depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the
central Atlantic.  The system is forecast to turn northward and
northeastward and merge with a strong cold front by the middle of
this week, and further development is not expected beyond that
time. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern
Atlantic later today, where a broad area of low pressure is expected
to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form early this week while the
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to
middle part of this week. The disturbance is also expected to bring
locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this
weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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