[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 051728
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
the remnants of Lisa, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern
Atlantic by Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected
to form north of Hispaniola.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or
tropical depression could form during the early part of next week
while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over
the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless of development, there is an
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early
to middle part of next week.  The disturbance is also expected to
bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
this weekend.  Interests in those areas should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical area of
low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda are
beginning to show signs of organization.  The system is producing
gale-force winds, and is currently attached to a frontal system.
The front is forecast to decay during the next day or so, and
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
additional development.  A tropical or subtropical depression
could form within the next few days while the system moves
northwestward, and then turns northeastward over the central
Atlantic.  After that time, the low is forecast to merge with a
strong cold ending the chance of further development. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown
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