[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 042037
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Deep convection that was associated with Lisa this morning has
quickly weakened and become displaced well to the northeast of the
center due strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear.  Earlier
satellite wind data and more recent observations from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the overnight and
morning convective burst did not result in any increase in strength.
 Data from the aircraft and the scatterometer instrument suggest
that Lisa's maximum winds are around 25 kt.  Since the shear is
forecast to increase further and the mid-level humidity near the
cyclone is expected to decrease, additional weakening is
anticipated.  It is possible that some additional bursts of
convection will occur in association with Lisa tonight and early
Saturday, but those bursts are not likely to result in a return of
organized deep convection.  Therefore, Lisa is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, but this could occur as
early as tonight if convection does not re-develop soon.

Lisa was located a bit farther north and west of the previous
estimates, which has resulted in an adjustment to the initial
position and short-term forecast.  Now that Lisa has become
vertically shallow it is expected to move slowly northward
tonight.  It should then stall and begin a southward drift over
the weekend before dissipation occurs. The new track forecast is
west of the previous track and is a blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF model forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 19.3N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 20.0N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 20.6N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 20.3N  95.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 19.9N  95.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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