[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression (TD) Lisa is centered near 19.1N 94.6W at
04/1500 UTC or 160 nm W of Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico and moving NW
at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas across the
southwestern Bay of Campeche are peaking at 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the SW Gulf,
within 130 nm of the center. Local flash flooding remains possible
across portions of southeastern Mexico. T.D. Lisa is forecast to
briefly become a tropical storm this evening, then start a
weakening trend Sat morning. Lisa is expected to slow down and drift
northward on Sat, then become quasi-stationary by Sat night.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 16N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen from
03N to 09N between 34W and 37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 17N southward,
and moving westward around 15 knots. Widely scattered showers are
noted from 02N to 04N between 42W and 47W, and from 08N to 11N
between 45W and 49W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the Dominican Republic
southward to northwestern Venezuela, and moving westward around 10
kt. Aided by divergent winds aloft, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted across the eastern Caribbean
Basin, including the Mona Passage, Puerto Rico, the Lesser
Antilles and Virgin Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau
coast near Bissau to 09N23W. Isolated thunderstorms are present up
to 80 nm south of the trough between 21W and 23W. An ITCZ in
three segments, continues from 09N23W to 10N34W, then from 10N37W
to 09N48W and from 09N51W to just southeast of Trinidad and
Tobago. Scattered moderate convection is evident near and up to 80
nm north of the first and third ITCZ segments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Panama and
northwester Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
Tropical Depression (TD) Lisa.

Outside the influence of T.D. Lisa, a surface ridge extends
southwestward from a 1028 mb high over the Mid-Atlantic U.S.
States across the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are seen
over the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, T.D. Lisa will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 19.8N 95.2W this evening, then weaken to a tropical
depression near 20.6N 95.4W Sat morning, and eventually become a
remnant low near 20.6N 95.2W Sat evening. It will drift to 20.3N
95.1W Sun morning and dissipate Sun evening. Elsewhere, high
pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward
through Sat. A cold front is expected to enter the northwestern
Gulf late tonight into Sat. The front will reach the central Gulf
Sun and weaken. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten
between high pressure building southward into the Gulf and broad
low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas starting
late Sun, leading to fresh to strong N to NE winds and building
seas over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
weather in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh SE trades and
seas of 3 to 5 ft are present over the eastern basin. Light to
gentle monsoonal winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are found at the
southwestern corner of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E
trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, a large non-tropical low pressure system is
expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean
Sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to
initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental
conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical
development beginning early next week while it moves generally
northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
Regardless of development, strong winds and scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the NE
Caribbean tonight through Sat night. Strong winds are also
expected Sat through Sun night in the southwestern Caribbean
associated with low pressure forecast to develop along the eastern
extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough. The low is expected to
move northeastward toward the NE Caribbean by late Mon while
weakening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough runs north-northwestward from the southeast
Bahamas to beyond 31N at 77W. In the vicinity, a pronounced
upper-level trough reaches southwestward from a low just southeast
of Bermuda across 31N62W to eastern Cuba. Interaction between
these features are generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
from the southeast Bahamas northward to 30N between 65W and 74W.
Farther east, another surface trough near 28N44W is coupling with
divergent flow aloft to produce scattered moderate convection
north of 24N between 37W and 49W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

Tight pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high off the
northeastern U.S. and a broad 1014 mb low south of Bermuda near
28N58W is leading to fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at
9 to 13 ft in northerly swell north of 27N between 56W and 70W. To
the west, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are
present north of 24N between 70W and the Georgia-Florida coast. At
the central Atlantic, a 1026 mb Azores High is supporting gentle
to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of 25N
between 30W and 56W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NNE trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft are found
from the Cabo Verde Islands northward to beyond 31N between the
African coast and 30W. Further south, gentle to moderate NE to E
trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present from 09N to 25N/27N between
the central African coast and Lesser Antilles/70W. Light to
gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail
for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a dissipating stationary front
extending from 25N66W to 28N74W will weaken further to a trough
today. Strong high pressure building north of the area will lead
to strong to near gale force easterly winds across the northern
waters, mainly north of 27N through Sat night. Large NE swell will
push southward across the entire area over the weekend. Looking
ahead, a large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to
develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and
southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very
broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could
support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning
early next week while it moves generally northwestward or westward
over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between
the low and strong high pressure to its north is expected to lead
to a broad area of strong NE to E winds over most of the northern
and western waters N of the Bahamas early next week. Frequent
gusts to gale force are possible over offshore Atlantic waters of
Florida Tue and Tue night.

$$

Chan
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