[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 030251
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1000 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Satellite and radar imagery showed Lisa made landfall earlier
this evening around 2120 UTC southwest of Belize City.  The maximum
sustained winds and minimum central pressure were estimated to be
75 kt and 990 mb, respectively.  The storm has moved farther inland
and the initial intensity has been reduced to 50 kt based on a
standard inland decay rate.  Rapid weakening is expected to
continue overnight and into tomorrow due to land interaction and
Lisa is forecast to be a tropical depression on Thursday.  Even
though the cyclone is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche
in a couple of days, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear will
likely prevent intensification.  The NHC intensity forecast remains
largely unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows Lisa
dissipating by the end of the forecast period.

Lisa is moving westward at an estimated 10 kt.  This general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so until the storm
crosses over the Bay of Campeche.  The cyclone is then forecast to
turn to the northwest and slow in forward speed, eventually
stalling between 60 to 72 hours until the low-level flow turns
Lisa southward.  The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory and close to the various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected across portions
of Belize, northern Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico
during the next day or so.

2. Water levels are likely to remain elevated in areas of onshore
flow along the coast of Belize overnight.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland over
Belize, northern Guatemala, southern portions of the Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico overnight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 17.6N  89.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  03/1200Z 17.7N  90.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/0000Z 18.1N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1200Z 18.8N  94.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0000Z 19.6N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  05/1200Z 20.2N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 20.2N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 19.5N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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