[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022135
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lisa is about to make landfall centered near 17.4N
88.2W at 02/2100 UTC or 0 nm S of Belize City moving W at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 24 ft. Rapid weakening will occur after the center of
Lisa moves inland. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
within 90 nm of the center mainly in the west semicircle, with
numerous moderate convection noted within 75 nm in the east
semicircle and elsewhere within 180 nm in the west semicircle.
Similar convection is noted across the remainder of the area from
18N to 23.5N between 82W and 92W. Lisa is moving toward the west
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day
or so, bringing the center of Lisa across Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. After that time, a turn to the
northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected as Lisa
moves over the Bay of Campeche. Localized flash flooding is
expected across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala and
portions of southeastern Mexico. Swells generated by Lisa are
expected to affect portions of Central America during the next day
or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Martin is centered near 37.1N 47.6W at 02/2100 UTC or
980 nm W of the Azores moving NE at 27 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75
kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently around 29 ft.
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
60 nm in the north semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is
noted elsewhere from 37N to 43N between 40W and 53W, and within
150 nm in the south semicircle. Martin is moving very quickly
toward the northeast, and a turn to the north and a rapid increase
in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days,
taking Martin over the far North Atlantic. Martin should get
larger and stronger through tomorrow, then gradually lose strength
from Thursday through the weekend, but remain a very large
cyclone. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Caribbean Sea along 62W,
from 18N southward to eastern Venezuela, moving slowly west around
5 kt. No deep convection is noted over water with some isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible in the vicinity of the tropical
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is located inland over the continent of Africa
to near 11N15W. The ITCZ continues from 11N15W to 09N30W to 04N40W
to 03N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 11N between 18W and 34W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 34W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
Hurricane Lisa.

Thunderstorms associated with the outer circulation of Lisa are
rotating into the south-central Gulf from western Cuba and the
Yucatan Channel to offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula. A
surface trough is analyzed from near Galveston Bay, Texas to about
60 nm offshore the remainder of Texas as well as Mexico to the Bay
of Campeche. Moderate to fresh winds are south of 21N and east of
93W near the southern portion of the trough per earlier ASCAT
scatterometer data, where some additional showers and
thunderstorms are also present. Mainly Moderate easterly winds
cover the remainder of the basin. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft, except
to 6 ft near the Yucatan Channel as SE swell from Lisa begins to
propagate into the area.

For the forecast, the trough located along the coast of Texas and
Mexico will dissipate tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure will
dominate the basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds through
Thu. Hurricane Lisa is about to make landfall near Belize City,
and then cross northern Guatemala and move into southeastern
Mexico by Thursday while weakening to a tropical depression. Then,
it is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche on Fri, where
it will meander through Sun, likely producing winds up to 30 kt
and seas to 9 ft. Lisa will become a remnant low over the SW Gulf
by Sun afternoon. Southerly return flow is expected to strengthen
over the NW Gulf Thu night through Fri night ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
Hurricane Lisa in the far NW Caribbean near the coast of Belize.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are noted across the remainder
of the basin, except light to gentle with 2-3 ft seas in the SW
Caribbean and offshore Nicaragua to 81W. Seas are 5-8 ft in the
central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft across the remainder of the basin.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, somewhat related to the far,
outer circulation of Lisa extend well away to the southeast from
near 10N to 16N between 78W and 83W. Mainly fair conditions
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Lisa will move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 17.6N 89.7W Thu morning, and to a tropical depression
near 17.9N 91.8W Thu afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish over
the NW Caribbean in about 24 hours as Lisa remains inland and W of
area. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere
through Thu. Looking ahead, a complex, non-tropical area of low
pressure is expected to develop this weekend over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea or the southwestern Atlantic. Some slow subtropical
or tropical development of this system is possible afterward
while it moves generally northward to northwestward through early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
Hurricane Martin.

The southern portion of a stalling cold front extends along 31N
between 65W and 80W with moderate to locally fresh N winds north
of it. A surface trough extends from near from 31N52W to 24N55W
near the Virgin Islands. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible north of 21N within 210 nm east-
southeast of the trough. Fresh to strong SW winds are north of
23N within 75-180 nm ahead of the trough. Moderate to locally
fresh W-NW winds are north of 25N west of the trough to about 65W.
Seas of 7-11 ft are noted north of 28N between 45W and 60W around
the back side of Hurricane Marin located north of the area. A
surface ridge is between the front and trough from roughly 29N80W
to 23N55W. Gentle to moderate winds are under the ridge, north of
18N and west of 55W, except moderate to locally fresh offshore
northern Hispaniola to across the Bahamas and to the Straits of
Florida. Seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere across the area north of 18N
and west of 55W as well.

To the east, 1023 mb high pressure northwest of the Canary
Islands near 32N23W extends a ridge southwest through 31N23W to
26N40W to 20N55W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft
seas in N swell are under the ridge within about 180 nm either
side. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas are south of 18N
and east of 30W.Mainly moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ over the open waters,
highest south of 16N and west of 40W.

For the forecast, the surface trough extending from the central to
SW N Atlantic will continue to affect the NE waters through at
least Thu. At the same time, a cold front will move across the N
waters on Thu before dissipating to a frontal trough on Fri.
Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring strong to
near gale force easterly winds across the N waters, mainly N of
27N, late Thu through Sat night. Large NE swell following the
front will push southward across the entire area over the weekend.
Looking ahead, a complex, non-tropical area of low pressure is
expected to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea or the southwestern Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or
tropical development of this system is possible afterward while it
moves generally northward to northwestward through early next
week.

$$
Lewitsky
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