[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010042 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed June 1 2022

Updated to add Special Feature

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatan
Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha interacting
with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this
marginal environment, this system is likely to become a tropical
depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan
Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely
across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading
across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on
Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system. This disturbance has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://hurricanes.gov/ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 02N to 14N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 10N between 45W and 55W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W S of 15N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed
over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to
09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 04N34W to 04N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between
19W and 27W, and from 02N to 06N between 31W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridge prevails across the northern Gulf. A surface
trough is over the SW Gulf from 22N92W to 19N92W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to
locally strong winds east of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft over the western
Gulf and 3-5 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a large and complex area of low pressure is
expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. This system is
likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Heavy rain
and increased winds and seas may result over portions of the SE
Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into the weekend. Otherwise,
expect moderate to fresh SE winds to prevail over the western and
central basin through the period, with mainly gentle winds to
the east.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An abundance of tropical moisture, combined with a developing
broad cyclonic gyre over Central America and southern Mexico is
supporting scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection
over the western Caribbean. High pressure is centered north of
the area. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and the monsoon trough and lower pressure over South
America is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the
Caribbean waters. Winds are locally strong over the far western
Caribbean due to a locally tighter pressure gradient. Seas are
in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a large and complex area of low pressure is
expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. This system is
likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Heavy rain
and increased winds and seas are possible late this week in
association with this system. Otherwise, generally moderate to
fresh trades will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 29N65W, with a second
high pressure center near 28N44W. Light to gentle winds are near
the high centers. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere
north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of 20N.
Seas are in the 2-3 ft range north of 26N and west of 60W. Seas
of 4-6 ft are elsewhere north of 20N and west of 35W. South of
20N, seas are in the 4-6 ft range. A dissipating cold front
enters the area near 31N12W and extends SW to near 24N25W. This
front has ushered in a set of northerly swell, producing seas of
7-11 ft west of the front to 35W.

For the forecast W of 65W, a trough will move NE from the
Bahamas over the next few days, bringing showers and
thunderstorms to western portions of the area into late week. A
tropical depression is likely to form in the far NW Caribbean Sea
or SE Gulf of Mexico later this week and cross Florida or Cuba
at the end of the week and over the weekend, then move NE into
the region. This could bring heavy rain and increased winds and
seas to portions of the area this weekend into early next week.

$$
AL/jrl
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