[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 48W from 02N to
14N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 10N between 36W and 54W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 67W from 01N to
13N. It is moving westward at 15kt. No significant convection is
observed over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to
07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 02N34W to 04N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 14W
and 19W. Similar convection is also noted from 02N to 06N between
16W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds across the
majority of the basin with gentle winds in the NE Gulf. The
remnants of Agatha over southern Mexico are causing scattered
moderate convection in the Bay of Campeche. An unstable moist
atmosphere is causing scattered weak convection over the SE Gulf
including the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits. Buoys are
reporting 5-7 ft seas in the central and NW Gulf and 3-5 ft seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic across the central Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh
SE winds over the western and central Gulf and mainly gentle SE
winds elsewhere through the the week. Fresh to strong southeast
winds offshore Veracruz will diminish by this afternoon. A large
area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan
Peninsula and far northwestern Caribbean Sea mid-week. This system
could become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward
across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico late this week. There is uncertainty with this expected
system, however, shower and thunderstorm activity as well as winds
will be on the increase for some areas of the SE Gulf going into
the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An abundance of tropical moisture, combined with a surface trough
in the NW Gulf is causing scattered moderate convection from 16N
to 22N between 80W and 88W. The monsoon trough extends across the
SW Caribbean with scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 09N to 12N between 76W and 82W. High pressure
north of the area, combined with lower pressure over South and
Central America, is generating moderate to fresh E-SE winds
across the basin. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central basin and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
into Wed night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much
of the remainder of the Caribbean through late week. A large area
of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula
and far northwestern Caribbean Sea mid-week. This system could
become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward across
the far northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico
late this week. There is uncertainty with this expected system,
however, shower and thunderstorm activity as well as winds will be
on the increase for the northwestern Caribbean late this week and
into the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture combined with a surface trough in the western
Atlantic is supporting scattered weak convection from 24N to 31N
between 68W and 79W. Weak high pressure in the western and central
subtropical Atlantic is causing mainly gentle to locally moderate
easterly winds, with an area of moderate to fresh easterlies north
of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Farther east, a cold front extends
from 31N15W to 24N32W. Behind the front and north of 26N, winds
are moderate to fresh from the west with 8-12 ft seas. Winds and
seas are mainly moderate or less across the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will change little over
the western Atlantic through the next few days. An upper level
trough over the SE U.S. and surface trough over the Bahamas will
keep showers and thunderstorms over the western part of the area
through the week. Low pressure expected to develop in the vicinity
of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and far northwestern Caribbean
Sea late this week is forecast to track northeastward as a
possible tropical cyclone, potentially affecting the western
forecast waters late in the week and into the weekend. There is
uncertainty with its eventual track and strength. Winds will pulse
fresh to strong north of Hispaniola through tonight. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the
region through Thu.

$$
Flynn
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net